The NBA Cup tips off tonight, Friday, Oct. 30, with a 10-game slate that begins with the Charlotte Hornets at the Washington Wizards (7 p.m. ET) and ends with the Los Angeles Lakers at the Golden State Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order, priced with Polymarket probabilities. The Boston Celtics (87%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Los Angeles Clippers (29%) are our longest shot. Find more betting analysis in our NBA picks and NBA odds.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 30
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Hornets Wizards |
49% |
 Bulls Celtics |
87% |
 Pistons Nets |
72% |
 Knicks 76ers |
47% |
 Magic Raptors |
65% |
 Pacers Heat |
71% |
 Rockets Mavericks |
63% |
 Clippers Timberwolves |
29% |
 Nuggets Suns |
60% |
 Lakers Warriors |
56% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 30
Hornets vs Wizards: Hornets
For clarification, this edge assumes both Kon Knueppel and Coby White are out of the Charlotte Hornets' lineup. Knueppel has been ramping up his activity and practicing with the Greensboro Swarm in the G League, but we don't expect him to play.
Naz Reid was benched in the second half of his last game against the Detroit Pistons, and hopefully, head coach Charles Lee's message was heard loud and clear. We'll need Reid on the floor against the Wizards.
Charlotte's offense currently relies heavily on perimeter shooting from Reid, Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, and others, with Brandon Miller serving as its primary shot creator.
Against a Washington team that boasts outstanding rim protection and makes life difficult for opponents in the paint, the Hornets' perimeter-oriented attack could be a good fit. That's why I'm backing Charlotte at 49% on the road.
Bulls vs Celtics: Celtics
We just backed the Boston Celtics against the Chicago Bulls, and nothing changes here at 87%. I make Boston closer to a 91% favorite, leaving plenty of room for value.
The Celtics have the wing defenders to switch across the board and make life difficult for Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis, ensuring they have to work for every shot.
Boston also holds a significant advantage on the glass when you compare 48 minutes of Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta against a Bulls frontcourt starting Jalen Smith with Nic Claxton still sidelined by injury.
Pistons vs Nets: Pistons
Egor Demin is out with an injury for the Brooklyn Nets, which should lead to increased minutes for rookie Mikel Brown Jr. at point guard.
This is a matchup where Brooklyn will wish it had a veteran point guard available. Good luck getting organized and initiating your offense with Ausar Thompson pressuring Brown at the point of attack.
Our handicap would look much different if Thompson were still sidelined, as that would give the Nets a bailout. With Thompson back in the lineup, however, we're placing a trade on the Pistons at 72%.
Knicks vs 76ers: 76ers
At 47%, give me the Philadelphia 76ers on the moneyline, as I make Philadelphia closer to a 56% favorite against the New York Knicks.
My biggest question for New York is how it plans to hide Jalen Brunson defensively with Philadelphia's entire starting five healthy.
Every player in the 76ers' starting lineup is capable of initiating offense and creating their own shot in isolation. That gives Philadelphia the opportunity to relentlessly target Brunson defensively, forcing him to expend energy on that end of the floor and potentially wearing him down before he gets to the offensive end.
When fully healthy, the 76ers present a unique challenge for the Knicks' defense, one that very few teams in the NBA are equipped to exploit.
Magic vs Raptors: Raptors
The Toronto Raptors just demolished the Orlando Magic by 30 points on Wednesday, so you'd think recency bias would push the market heavily in Toronto's favor. That's not necessarily the case, as the Raptors are trading at 65% while I make them closer to 69% favorites.
Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero remain sidelined for Orlando, putting even more offensive responsibility on Franz Wagner against a Raptors team loaded with switchable wing defenders who can make his life miserable on the perimeter.
We saw that defensive pressure in the first meeting, when Wagner committed seven turnovers and struggled to get the Magic offense into a rhythm. I expect Toronto to make life equally difficult for him in the rematch.
Pacers vs Heat: Heat
The Miami Heat are trading at 71% on the moneyline, and this is a number I'm more than happy to hit the button on, as I make Miami closer to a 77% favorite against the Indiana Pacers.
It's not surprising to see the Heat carry one of the biggest probability gaps on the board. They've been underwhelming to start the season, and not many people are eager to back a 1-4 team at a 71% win probability.
The injuries to Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell loom large in my projections, but it's Ivica Zubac's injury that really jumps off the page in this particular matchup.
With Zubac doubtful, Jay Huff is in line to absorb the bulk of the minutes at center, creating a matchup where Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo should have a significant advantage on the interior.
Rockets vs Mavericks: Rockets
At 63%, the Houston Rockets are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I price them closer to 70% favorites even with Alperen Sengun projected to miss this game.
Sengun hasn't been officially ruled out and remains questionable, but showing you Houston's projected win probability in a worst-case scenario — and the edge that still exists at this price — should tell you just how much I like this trade.
Obviously, the Rockets' win probability climbs if Sengun is cleared to play, but his potential absence isn't a major concern in this specific matchup.
The Dallas Mavericks are without Dereck Lively, while Santi Aldama is also doubtful, leaving Daniel Gafford as their lone big man.
Against this Dallas lineup and Cooper Flagg, having switchable defenders like Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, and Jabari Smith Jr. occupying the frontcourt is actually an advantage. Gafford isn't the type of big who will consistently punish Houston on the block for not having a traditional center in the lineup.
Clippers vs Timberwolves: Clippers
This article was looking pretty chalky until now, but give me the Los Angeles Clippers as 29% underdogs on the moneyline against a Minnesota Timberwolves team searching for an offensive identity without Anthony Edwards.
With Edwards sidelined, Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. can focus their defensive attention on LaMelo Ball. Meanwhile, Brook Lopez is the perfect stretch big to pull Rudy Gobert away from the rim and limit his shot-blocking and rim-protection impact.
The two-man actions between Darius Garland and Lopez should wreak havoc on Gobert's drop coverage, especially with both players' shooting ability and Lopez's effectiveness as a pick-and-pop threat.
Nuggets vs Suns: Nuggets
For Friday's matchup against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, the Phoenix Suns are already without Mark Williams, while Oso Ighodaro remains questionable with an oblique strain.
At best, Khaman Maluach gives Phoenix around 28 minutes, leaving roughly eight minutes without a true primary defender to handle Jokic.
That's a major problem for the Suns, who will likely need to send extra help toward the three-time MVP, opening up passing lanes and creating quality looks for his teammates.
Even during Maluach's minutes, there's reason for concern. Jokic's basketball IQ and ability to exploit defensive mistakes make him a difficult matchup for any young big man. Maluach is still a raw prospect with elite athletic tools, but the cerebral Jokic is exactly the type of opponent who can expose his inexperience. Give me the Nuggets on the moneyline.
Lakers vs Warriors: Lakers
At 56%, I'm backing the Los Angeles Lakers, who I price closer to 63% favorites against the Golden State Warriors.
Luka Doncic is listed as questionable, but I view this more as a load-management situation after Wednesday's game than a multi-game injury concern. And do you really think he's going to duck a rematch with Yaxel Lendeborg after all the trash talk Lendeborg directed his way in the media following their first meeting?
Doncic and Lendeborg will get most of the attention, but Walker Kessler is the key to this projection and a major reason I favor the Lakers.
With 6-foot-7 Draymond Green potentially serving as the opposing center, Kessler becomes a high-impact lob threat who can capitalize on passes from both Doncic and Austin Reaves around the rim.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
76ers
Rockets
Lakers
These are the three teams with the largest gaps between my projected win probabilities and their current market prices.
The Heat also fit that criteria, but after blowing up too many of my combos this season as a standalone leg, they're staying on the bench for now.
Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable for the 76ers matchup, but the gap between my projection and the market is large enough that we could absorb his absence and still have an edge at the current 47% price.
It's also the front end of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, but with this being an NBA Cup game at home against a division rival in the Knicks, I expect the 76ers to have their full starting lineup available.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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