NBA Championship Odds: Celtics Crushing, Continue to Shorten as Favorites

The 2023-24 regular season's approaching its final month , and we've seen plenty of contenders' NBA championship odds fluctuate, with the Clippers entering the top tier of favorites as the stretch run arrives.

Mar 13, 2024 • 12:39 ET • 5 min read
Jayson Tatum NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NBA championship odds continue to see plenty of movement as the season trudges on. Between the Los Angeles Clippers' dominance, the Golden State Warriors' struggles and subsequent resurgence, and standings shakeups from the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, we've seen plenty of shuffling over the first four months.

As a result, the once-insulated NBA odds favorites for the 2024 Finals are finally having their perch threatened, with the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Milwaukee Bucks seeing the Clippers join them atop this popular NBA futures board. 

Several squads were expected to make trade deadline moves that could shift them towards contention, but very little movement actually took place, and its impact on the NBA Finals odds race was minimal. 

With the dust settling from the buyout market as the playoff push begins in earnest, let's check out the latest NBA title odds.

NBA Championship odds

Who has the best odds to win the 2024 NBA championship?

Boston Celtics (+220 to +250)

The Boston Celtics spent most of last season as the title favorites, but infamously flamed out in the conference finals, opting to condense the roster for more top-end talent last summer.

Early depth concerns after gutting their rotation to acquire Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis have been mitigated by just how strong Boston's Top 6 looks, while the likes of Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, and even Payton Pritchard have risen to the occasion. 

The Celtics sit with a 51-14 record and 11.3 net rating — both safely NBA bests — looking every bit as good as advertised after their big trades.

Things have been particularly gruesome over the past stretch, with Boston rocking a ridiculous 19.6 net rating over its pas 10 games, recently winning 11 straight. It was a very forgivable lapse given the past few weeks, as the Celtics are clearly the class of the NBA right now.

Denver Nuggets (+350 to +400)

It's no surprise that the defending champion Denver Nuggets sit near the top of betting boards, with Nikola Jokic putting on a true display of dominance last season and Jamal Murray playing the best non-Bubble ball of his career en route to a title.

Most of the crew has returned, and even with the Bucks and Celtics trades, and the Nuggets' occasional nonchalance through the regular season, they're the team to beat until proven otherwise.

After some mid-season struggles took hold — hovering around .500 for November and December, dealing with a Murray injury — Denver's settling in as a mortal lock for a Top-4 seed in the West, currently knotted with OKC for the conference's best record. 

If there's a single team in the league that's "playing for June" right now, this is it, but Denver's currently still in good enough form to have toppled Boston in a possible preview. The lack of Nuggets activity at the deadline should only reinforce confidence in this unit. 

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Los Angeles Clippers (+450 to +540)

After years of injuries and playoff flameouts, it was natural for any rational NBA observer to wonder if this season wasn't just another inevitable disappointment for the Clippers.

However, after a blockbuster trade to land James Harden and some initial chemistry meltdowns, LAC is firing on all cylinders, rocketing up the standings to join the melee for the West's first seed. 

Kawhi Leonard is back at the peak of his powers and having his healthiest season in years, the bench remains deep, the lineups remain versatile, and the Big 3 are fitting seamlessly under Ty Lue's sage tutelage. It will all come down to April again, but this is the most legit the current era of the Clippers has looked, even through a .500 stretch over their last 10 games.

Milwaukee Bucks (+600 to +745)

The Milwaukee Bucks swung for the fences, acquiring disgruntled Damian Lillard from Portland after talks with his preferred Miami destination stalled all summer. Lillard, in theory, creates a horrific dual-gravity effect between Dame's spacing and the attention Giannis Antetokounmpo commands around the net. 

The first few weeks weren't amazing, but after some initial fit issues, the Bucks came charging back, reclaiming a then-Top-2 seed in the East. The fully-realized version of Milwaukee's offense should be enough to compete for a title, but its defense — which continues to rear its head in ugly ways — could be what prevents the Bucks from actually winning one. 

But a serious shakeup rocked the team on January 24, with the Bucks firing rookie head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin's rocky tenure included the contentious preseason departure of longtime head coach-turned-assistant Terry Stotts (who happened to coach Lillard for the better part of a decade in Portland), several in-game staring matches with Antetokounmpo, and a painful under-usage of his two stars in pick-and-roll sets. 

Still, it came as a drastic measure to see the Bucks cut ties with Griffin mere months after hiring him, suggesting a truly toxic dynamic was festering beneath the public cracks. 

Milwaukee promptly hired veteran Doc Rivers to replace Griffin. While Doc's former Coach of the Year and NBA Championship winner, his recent career has been dotted by playoff collapses that have drawn scrutiny from many pundits.

Doc's Bucks tenure got off to a disastrous start, but Milwaukee went on a six-game winning streak and looks noticeably better on defense — particularly in transition. With the demises of New York and Philadelphia, the Bucks are now practically guaranteed a Top-3 seed, keeping them out of Boston's bracket until the Eastern Conference Finals. 

NBA Finals odds over time

Here's a look at how NBA championship odds stack up league-wide this season. We'll be updating throughout the season to show how the odds race evolves. 

NBA Finalists 2023-24 odds

Matchup Odds
Celtics Boston Celtics vs. Nuggets Denver Nuggets +400
Celtics Boston Celtics vs. Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +500
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks vs. Nuggets Denver Nuggets +1,000
Celtics Boston Celtics vs. Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder +1,200
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks vs. Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +1,300
Celtics Boston Celtics vs. Suns Phoenix Suns  +1,600
Celtics Boston Celtics vs. Timberwolves Minnesota Timberwolves +2,400
Knicks New York Knicks vs. Nuggets Denver Nuggets +2,700
Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Denver Nuggets +2,900
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks vs. Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder +3,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of March 12, 2024.

NBA Finals exact result odds

Matchup Odds
Celtics Boston Celtics to beat Nuggets Denver Nuggets +700
Nuggets Denver Nuggets to beat Celtics Boston Celtics +750
Celtics Boston Celtics to beat Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +900
Clippers Los Angeles Clippers to beat Celtics Boston Celtics  +1,000
Celtics Boston Celtics to beat Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder +1,700
Nuggets Denver Nuggets to beat Bucks Milwaukee Bucks +1,700
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks to beat Nuggets Denver Nuggets +1,900
Clippers Los Angeles Clippers to beat Bucks Milwaukee Bucks +2,200
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks to beat Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +2,200
Celtics Boston Celtics to beat Suns Phoenix Suns +3,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of March 12, 2024.

Understanding NBA Finals futures, point spreads and lines

Sportsbooks will post NBA Finals futures as soon as the previous season concludes, and some even sooner. These betting boards are constantly adjusted throughout the summer and ensuing season as players get hurt or are traded. Once the regular season begins, NBA Finals odds will change daily as teams win and lose games, and as more players are injured or traded. Sportsbooks will also adjust the NBA title odds based on handle and liability to certain teams.

NBA Championship odds will usually look like this:

  • Milwaukee Bucks +240

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $240 if the Bucks win the NBA title. If it's close to the end of the season or the NBA has a very dominant team, you could see a minus sign (-) ahead of a team's odds. 

  • Golden State Warriors -150

This means that if you bet on the Golden State Warriors during the 2018-2019 NBA season you would have needed to bet $150 to profit $100 if the Warriors won the championship.

Above we have posted the American odds for the NBA championship. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.

Reading the NBA Finals moneyline odds

Betting the moneyline (ML) in the NBA means simply picking which team wins the game outright. Moneyline favorites have a negative value (-110), while moneyline underdogs have a positive value (+110). It's a two-way market, which means there are only two options to place a wager. 

Team Moneyline Odds
Celtics Boston Celtics -130
Nuggets Denver Nuggets +110

American odds are very straightforward. If a sportsbook has the Boston Celtics listed as -130 favorites, you would have to bet $130 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on the opposing underdog Denver Nuggets at +110, you would get a $210 return, including your original stake.

Past NBA Finals winners

The Denver Nuggets hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2023, toppling the eighth-seeded Miami Heat by a 4-1 tally.

Here are the last 10 NBA Finals winners, along with their opening odds.

Season NBA Finals Winner Opening odds  Runner up
2022-23 Nuggets Denver Nuggets +1,800 Heat Miami Heat
2021-22 Warriors Golden State Warriors +1,200 Celtics Boston Celtics
2020-21 Bucks Milwaukee Bucks +500 Suns Phoenix Suns
2019-20 Lakers Los Angeles Lakers +1,800 Heat Miami Heat
2018-19 Raptors Toronto Raptors +6,600 Warriors Golden State Warriors
2017-18 Warriors Golden State Warriors -168 Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers
2016-17 Warriors Golden State Warriors +215 Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers
2015-16 Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers +300 Warriors Golden State Warriors
2014-15 Warriors Golden State Warriors +2,500 Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers
2013-14 Spurs San Antonio Spurs +1,000 Heat Miami Heat

Teams with the most NBA Championships

No team has ever enjoyed a longer stretch of dominance than the Celtics, who won eight straight championships from 1959 to 1966. The franchise's stunning superiority was due in large part to the spectacular play of Bill Russell, who won 11 titles in his 13 years in the league.

Team NBA championships
Lakers Los Angeles Lakers 17
Celtics Boston Celtics 17
Warriors Golden State Warriors 7
Bulls Chicago Bulls 6
Spurs San Antonio Spurs 5
76ers Philadelphia 76ers 3
Pistons Detroit Pistons 3
Heat Miami Heat 3
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks 2
Knicks New York Knicks 2
Rockets Houston Rockets 2
Raptors Toronto Raptors 1
Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 1
Cavs Cleveland Cavaliers 1
Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 1
Nuggets Denver Nuggets 1

Best NBA Finals betting sites

If you're in a state that allows mobile, or online betting, make sure you know which sites are the best basketball betting sites. The best betting sites offer sharp odds, quick payouts and are safe and secure when it comes to depositing and withdrawing your money. 

NBA Championship odds trends

  • The Western Conference has won 14 of the last 21 NBA Championships.

  • A No. 1 seed has won the championship in 11 of the last 21 seasons.

  • The last time a non-Top-3 seed won the championship was 1995 (Houston, No. 6).

  • The Golden State Warriors have won four of the past eight NBA titles, and been Western Conference champions in two of those four seasons they didn't lift the Larry O. 

How to bet NBA Finals odds

There are many strategies to consider when making an NBA futures bet on which team will win the championship. Obviously, you're looking to bet on who you think can navigate through the NBA playoffs and come out on top. So, just because a team is in first place at the NBA All-Star break, it doesn't mean that's the best roster to win in the postseason. 

One thing to consider is the conference the teams play in because a team needs to win its conference before it can win the NBA title. The West has long been considered the better of the two conferences, but the East's depth of elite teams has recently become as impressive, if not more. 

Also, consider how an injury may affect a futures bet. Let's say the Milwaukee Bucks are a heavy favorite to win the Eastern Conference and a short favorite to win the NBA title. But what happens if Giannis Antetokounmpo gets hurt? In that case, a ticket on a rival team to win becomes extremely valuable.

Other things to consider are strength of schedule, and even load management. Maybe a team is undervalued in the futures market because it has played the more difficult portion of its schedule early on. Or perhaps a team has more losses than it should because it has been sitting its best player on the second half of back-to-back games all season. 

Check out more insight into how to bet on basketball.

NBA Championship Odds FAQs

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