Best NFL Picks Today

Look for JSN to get involved early and often at home on Wednesday. Seattle's No. 1 wideout recorded 10 or more targets nine times a season ago, and might see an even heavier workload this year. By all reports, new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury and JSN have already built a strong rapport in the offseason, which bodes well for his target share in Week 1. With rookie RB Jadarian Price making his NFL debut, expect the offense to lean on the passing attack.

Los Angeles is 8-11 SU across the last 19 head-to-heads vs San Francisco, with only four wins by four or more points. This will be the healthiest version of the 49ers we've seen in a while and they arrive in Melbourne six days before kickoff, giving them nearly a full week to adjust to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams, meanwhile, won’t arrive until one day before the game following a 15-hour flight, which is a questionable approach to a regular-season rivalry matchup. Give me the points!

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

The Cleveland Browns enter the year with massive questions on offense, with PFF rating them dead last in its offensive power rankings, though they remain solid on defense. With two solid defenses and Cleveland's atrocious offense, this promises to be one of the lowest-scoring games of Week 1. I like the Under at totals down to 38.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans to pass on 54.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 124.4 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense last year: 5th-fewest in football.. Trey McBride ranks as one of the worst tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.. Last year, the strong Chargers defense has given up a meager 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

The blitz-heavy Vikings will face a Packers offensive line with question marks beside starters Aaron Banks (knee) and Zach Bako-Bewele (knee), and Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love dipped to a pedestrian 41.6 completion percentage for 5.0 yards per target when pressured last season. Playing without key starters Micah Parsons (knee) and Josh Jacobs (Reserve-CEL) will aslo be a huge hit to the Packers. On the flip side, Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray has a top-tier receiver corps at his disposal for the first time of his career, and his 67.1 career completion percentage and mobility will thrive in head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offense.

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, De'Von Achane is projected by the projections to land in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.3 carries.. De'Von Achane has received 62.9% of his team's carries last year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has generated 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (96th percentile).. With an impressive rate of 5.16 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), De'Von Achane stands as one of the leading pure runners in football last year.

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The predictive model expects the Eagles as the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. With a remarkable rate of 26.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (92nd percentile), Jalen Hurts rates among the leading rushing QBs in football last year.. Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (142 per game) against the Commanders defense last year.

With the Giants in transition mode under new head coach John Harbaugh, I’m happy to take the Cowboys below the key number of 3. The Dallas offense has oodles of continuity after averaging 27.7 points per game last season, and the offseason commitment to bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball will provide an upgrade to a stop unit that allowed the third-most yards and most points per game.  I also anticipate this game closing with Dallas as at least a -3 favorite ahead of Sunday Night Football.

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.