Best NFL Picks Today

New Orleans has covered eight of its last 10 games as an underdog, and I’m happy to grab the points against a Pittsburgh team that’s 3-7 ATS in its last 10 following an outright win. The Saints can make this a fight with an offense ranked eighth on third down and second in red-zone touchdown rate. They’ve already pushed Detroit to overtime and beaten Baltimore outright, covering both games away from home. Pittsburgh hasn’t earned my trust to pull away, and at +3.5, even a field-goal loss gets us paid.

Murray has logged 225+ passing yards in back-to-back games, and there’s an even higher ceiling here with a healthier supporting cast for this Week 7 battle. Indoor conditions play to Murray’s strengths, and he’s gone past this number in his last eight home outings (excluding the brief start in this year’s season opener) in Arizona and Minnesota.

Jalen Coker's TD price moved too much, but with Darren Waller's snap share dropping and Tommy Tremble picking up the slack, there could be a new TE1 emerging in a Carolina offense that ranks second in the NFL in PROE. Tremble played 70% of the snaps last week in a game that could look very similar to Week 7. He finished with two TDs and ranked third on the team in targets and receptions, with four of each. He also saw two red-zone targets, and the Panthers have four TE red-zone TDs this season — the same number as their rushing TDs. Bryce Young has dropped back to pass on 58% of Carolina's red-zone plays, adding to Tremble's scoring upside.

We pay the TE tax on "National Tight Ends Day". Kittle jumps up the pecking order in terms of targets with the Niners missing WRs. He has five touchdowns on the season, drawing 10 red-zone targets for eight catches and four TDs inside the 20-yard line. The Falcons have had their hands full versus rival TEs, giving up seventh most targets and receptions to the position, along with four touchdowns to tight ends.

Playable to 51%.

McCarthy played 10 games in 2025, finishing with a negative EPA/play in seven of them. The three games with a positive EPA/play came against the Packers, Cowboys, and Commanders -- defenses that ranked 22nd, 30th, and 31st in EPA/play allowed against the pass, respectively.

The Texans rank 8th in my scheduled-adjusted defensive EPA/play ratings this season and 4th in schedule-adjusted defensive success rate. It's difficult to see the Giants scoring enough points to push this game over the total.

JK Dobbins has had 20 opportunities and a TD in back-to-back games, and with Tyler Badie injured, that workload looks very sustainable in Week 7 vs. the Cardinals, who allow the third-most rushing yards to RBs and rank in the bottom third in TDs allowed to the position. I have his TD price at 53%, with RJ Harvey not posing a massive TD threat and serving more as the passing-down back. Jaylen Waddle picked up a chest injury last week, and the Broncos might have to lean on their RB stable a little more this week, especially as 4.5-point road favorites.

The Rams’ Super Bowl dream needs resuscitation, and a Raiders defense ranking 29th in yards allowed per play should help. Vegas can throw punches too, averaging 27 points per game, with four straight outings producing at least 57 combined points. L.A.’s last 10 road games are 9-1 to the Over, where they've dropped an average of 30.7 PPG. Expect the Rams' offense to wake up and hit some home runs vs a defense that ranks 30th in explosive play rate allowed.

I recommend this TD prop up to 58% becasuse St. Brown has picked up 20 red-zone targets for a 41% team share through five games, and he’s scored 38 touchdowns through 55 games since the beginning of the 2023 season. Lions QB Jared Goff sports an elite 116.6 NFL passer rating when targeting St. Brown, and the go-to receiver hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3.

The quarterbacks get the spotlight, but these defenses get my money. Seattle ranks first in yards allowed per play, Kansas City is sixth, and both defenses sit inside the Top 10 on third down. Sam Darnold has seven interceptions and has taken 13 sacks across his last three games. Don't expect a pro bowl level performance out of Darnold vs a defense that's held three seperate opponents to 10 points or less. With Seattle rested at home and off a loss, Mahomes gets his toughest assignment of the season. This should all continue a trend that's seen the Cheifs go Under in 12 of their last 15 games.

Philadelphia drags everyone into the mud, with five straight games staying below 44.5 points. The Eagles rank dead last in yards per play, giving even Dallas’ pathetic defense a chance to look respectable. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 28th in explosive play rate and have scored  just 20, 16 and 13 points in primetime games this season.