PIT 5.5 o42.5
BAL -5.5 u42.5
SEA -7.0 o44.5
ATL 7.0 u44.5
TEN 3.5 o34.0
CLE -3.5 u34.0
MIA -2.5 o41.5
NYJ 2.5 u41.5
NO 8.5 o41.5
TB -8.5 u41.5
IND -2.0 o47.0
JAC 2.0 u47.0
WAS 1.5 o42.5
MIN -1.5 u42.5
CIN 5.5 o53.5
BUF -5.5 u53.5
DEN -7.5 o40.0
LV 7.5 u40.0
CHI 7.0 o44.5
GB -7.0 u44.5
LA -8.5 o47.5
ARI 8.5 u47.5
HOU 3.5 o41.5
KC -3.5 u41.5
PHI -2.5 o41.5
LAC 2.5 u41.5
Final Dec 4
DAL 30 4.0 o55.0
DET 44 -4.0 u55.0
Steelers 2nd AFC North6-6
Ravens 1st AFC North6-6

Steelers @ Ravens Picks & Props

PIT vs BAL Picks

NFL Picks
Receiving Yards
Zay Flowers logo Zay Flowers o55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

Zay Flowers is coming off an ugly game where he reeled in just two of seven targets for six yards. That said, he's in a good spot to bounce back against the Steelers on Sunday. Prior to last week, Flowers had racked up more than 55.5 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games. He's Baltimore's best receiver by a wide margin and Pittsburgh's defense has been a passing funnel. The Steelers are 25th in the NFL in opponent passing rate (59.6%) while allowing a league-high 171.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson logo Lamar Jackson o25.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Jackson hasn’t had a rushing yards total this low once since the beginning of the 2024 season, and while his recent numbers on the ground don’t jump off the page, he’s still topped this number in two of his past four games and has averaged 6.2 carries per since returning from injury in Week 9. Jackson is nursing an ankle injury, but with Pittsburgh blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league, I’m expecting multiple scrambles for chunk gains. Plus, coming off the mini bye with a Thursday game in Week 13 is a bonus.

Score a Touchdown
Jaylen Warren logo Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +180)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Pittsburgh leaned on Jaylen Warren more last week than they had in recent games, giving him the majority of the red-zone work. He had the team’s only carry inside the 5 — which he converted for a TD — and added two more red-zone targets. Even though the Steelers alternated drives with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren consistently got the first crack and the valuable touches near the goal line. I saw it firsthand while chasing a Gainwell TD at +220 and watching Warren outcarry him 2:1. The quarterback situation is shaky, but against a Baltimore team that’s lost its defensive edge and just gave up plenty of production to Bengals running backs, Warren should be asked to handle a heavy workload and finish drives. Warren was -155 just four games ago.

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Baltimore Ravens logo BAL -5.5 (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.

Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o30.5 Passing Attempts (-123)
Projection 34.62 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.4. . The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o197.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 220.81 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.4. . The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.
Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson logo
Lamar Jackson u221.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 206.66 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a massive 30.21 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year.. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 30.8 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pat Freiermuth o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 27.89 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.. With an excellent 8.7 adjusted yards per target (76th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth places as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o11.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Projection 18.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. This week, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. With an exceptional 9.3% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry logo
Derrick Henry o6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 12.1 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) to running backs this year (88.7%).
Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf logo
DK Metcalf o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 55.35 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. With a top-tier 92.9% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. The projections expect DK Metcalf to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Receiving Yards
Mark Andrews logo
Mark Andrews o33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 39.65 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to garner 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.. With an extraordinary 17.3% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (66.0) to TEs this year.. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.9%) to TEs this year (80.9%).
Receiving Yards
Zay Flowers logo
Zay Flowers o56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 62.74 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is expected by the projections to slot into the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.. Zay Flowers has been one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 72.1%.
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 59.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
In this week's game, Jaylen Warren is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.6 rush attempts.. Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his offense's running game this year (63.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (25.6%).. Jaylen Warren has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
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PIT vs BAL Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

PIT vs BAL Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown Props • Baltimore

Derrick Henry
D. Henry
running back RB • Baltimore
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.64
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.64
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) to running backs this year (88.7%). The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Derrick Henry logo

Derrick Henry

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.64
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.64

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) to running backs this year (88.7%). The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Patrick Ricard Score a Touchdown Props • Baltimore

Patrick Ricard
P. Ricard
fullback FB • Baltimore
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

Kaleb Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Kaleb Johnson
K. Johnson
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

Ke'Shawn Williams Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Ke'Shawn Williams
K. Williams
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

PIT vs BAL Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'stom5900' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+6.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-2-0) and +8650 units on the season.

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'stom5900' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (47.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-2-0) and +8650 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'Lucknuts' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (47.5)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Lucknuts' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.5)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'stakay125' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.0)

stakay125 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'stakay125' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (42.5)

stakay125 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (47.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7850 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+6.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7850 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (42.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6750 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.0)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6750 units on the season.

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'bugsy1958' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (43.0)

bugsy1958 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6250 units on the season.

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'bugsy1958' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.0)

bugsy1958 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6250 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.5)

Bazooks813973 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +6130 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (42.5)

Bazooks813973 is #5 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +6130 units on the season.

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'livelywee55' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+6.5)

livelywee55 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5900 units on the season.

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'livelywee55' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (43.5)

livelywee55 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5900 units on the season.

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'Batch9' is picking Baltimore to cover (-6.5)

Batch9 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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'Batch9' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Under (47.5)

Batch9 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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'gator49' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (42.5)

gator49 is #7 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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'gator49' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+5.5)

gator49 is #7 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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'bluetide007' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+6.5)

bluetide007 is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'bluetide007' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (47.5)

bluetide007 is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'RAZORAZE283' picks Pittsburgh vs Baltimore to go Over (42.5)

RAZORAZE283 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'RAZORAZE283' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+6.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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