Best NFL Picks Today

This anytime touchdown prop is in play down to -115 because the Eagles surrendered two rushing scores in Week 4, and Tuten’s been a force for the Jaguars. Tuten has an elite 4.02 yards per carry after contact and 109.6 PFF elusive rating while handling 56.3% of the red-zone rushes for Jacksonville, including nine across the past three games.

Play up to 35%. Harold Fannin Jr. leads Cleveland with three touchdowns and has converted all three of his red-zone targets into scores. With a 20% target share and an established role near the goal line, another touchdown is firmly in play.

Playable to 29%.

Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air. Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

Jones' anytime TD is playable up to 55%. He's now Minnesota's primary back, while New Orleans has allowed an NFL-high nine rushing touchdowns to running backs. His receiving role gives him another path to scoring.

Play up to 50%. C.J. Stroud has cleared this number in three of four games, including 347 yards against Dallas. Houston ranks sixth in passing but 30th in rushing, while Tennessee allowed 285 passing yards last week, supporting another pass-heavy approach.

I got this at 3.56x and would play it to 3.15x, with a fair price of 3x. Isaiah Likely has a massive 32% target share. He had 12 targets last week and hauled in a team-high seven receptions. Jameis Winston is looking a lot better than he did in Week 1, and the second-most targeted tight end in football is a TD threat in Week 5 against a Commanders defense that is giving up 30.5 points per game. It’s not just volume; it’s volume near the goal line, too. No tight end has more red-zone receptions than Likely, who leads an offense that is struggling to run inside the 20 with just one rushing TD in the red zone. This offense is being undervalued in this matchup, and Likely is the best target at 32% or better.

The Steelers have a massive rest and travel advantage this week, so I recommend this moneyline to 62%. Pittsburgh played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, while Indianapolis is returning from London for this road game. This puts an Indy defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA in a tough spot. The Colts have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage while also allowing the sixth-highest rushing yards per attempt, after all. As a result, I expect Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground in horrible weather conditions to dominate the time of possession and keep the Indy offense on the sidelines Sunday afternoon.

I recommend this Over to 55% because Odunze's 73.7% catch rate, 16.6 yards per reception and 15.5 aDoT are all career-high marks, and he’s recorded 40 or more receiving yards in all four games. Plus, with the Packers allowing the ninth-highest EPA per dropback and surrendering the fifth-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers, this checks out as a juicy matchup.

This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x rather than his 4.7x price. The Broncos are missing key bodies in the secondary, as Patrick Surtain is doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable. Helping Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of his receivers. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable. The only players seemingly healthy on this Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards. Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets. This is one of my favorite TD prices this weekend.

LaPorta draws a favorable matchup against an Arizona defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Gibbs and St. Brown should command plenty of attention, leaving LaPorta opportunities against weak coverage over the middle.

Back Wilson to score to -130 because his unrivaled lead role in the Seattle backfield will yield both a high-volume workload and high-value scoring opportunities again this week. In addition to Seattle scoring four rushing touchdowns across its past two meetings with San Fran, Wilson also found the end zone in Week 4 in the go-to role while picking up 3.43 yards after contact per attempt with a solid 100.0 PFF elusive rating.

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.

Josh Allen’s passing TD props come at a discount because of how dangerous the Bills QB is as a runner in the red zone. With the tallest total on the board for Buffalo’s trip to L.A., Allen’s TD pass projections are very positive. Those models range from 1.4 to 1.84 with majority at 1.6 or higher. Allen has only one passing TD in the last two games after 2 and 3 strikes in the opening two outings. His passing stats get a boost in rare indoor games and he’ll let if fly on MNF.