Best NFL Picks Today

Jadarian Price didn't catch a lot of balls at Notre Dame, but new OC Brian Fleury could change that. He comes from the Kyle Shanahan school, where Christian McCaffrey had a higher target share than CeeDee Lamb last season. Sam Darnold has talked about Price's pass-catching skills, and so has his own defense after Price burned them deep at 7-on-7s. If the Seahawks can't get the first-round rookie going on the ground against a tough New England run unit, look for Fleury to get Price going in the pass game. Kenneth Walker saw 3+ targets in nine of his last 11 games last season, and 3+ grabs is certainly live Wednesday. With Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet out, Price will get a ton of snaps and projects for 1.89 receptions. I'd play this to -105.

Buy to 53.5%. Bought at 51%. Kyle Shanahan has already said George Kittle (Achilles) will have a monitored workload Thursday, as he just came off the PUP list two weeks ago. That could push him into more of a red-zone and third-down role rather than a full-time workload. Jake Tonges could potentially play more snaps than Kittle, and it's interesting that the backup tight end doesn't have a reception market yet, but that could change closer to kickoff. There are also a lot of other bodies in this offense that need looks, and if San Francisco is playing with the lead, Kittle could be doing more watching than playing.

The gap between Colston Loveland's TD market implied probability (32%) and his actual chance of scoring (fair around 40%) is a big Week 1 advantage for early bettors. Loveland averaged 66 yards per game after Week 8 last season while adding touchdowns in five of those games (six total). Wide receiver Rome Odunze (leg) suffered his injury last Thursday and didn't practice Tuesday, while Luther Burden has been out for about a month with a groin injury and is working his way back to practice this week. It's the perfect spot at the wrong price for Caleb Williams' favorite target over the second half of last season. Williams finished last year with the third-highest deep-throw rate, and Loveland, who doesn't drop balls and played 40% of his snaps in the slot or out wide, could take full advantage as the healthiest pass catcher on the roster.

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

Bought at x3.7. Fair at x3.15. The Jaguars are trying to get Brian Thomas going after the disaster that was last season, and those moves might revive the burner. Thomas was useless over the middle under first-year offensive coach Liam Coen who is pushing him to the “X” receiver and using him more like the vertical threat he was in his rookie year. Travis Hunter is still not a major threat so last year’s setup with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington will still be the norm for Thomas who has had a leadup to the season. Cleveland is obviously without Mykles Garrett, but this is still a great defense, however, it’s not a bad one to attack early as it will be learning a new scheme under first-year DC Mike Rutenberg who replaces Jim Schwartz after he bailed on the organization after not getting the HC job. If he looks good in Week 1, bettors will never see a payout like this all season. 

Are you telling me I can get a potential 20-touch running back facing the Bengals at better than 50% to score a touchdown on Sunday? Sean Tucker has already been labeled a game-time decision by head coach Todd Bowles, which leaves Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell atop a Tampa backfield that lost Rachaad White. Injuries have hurt Irving in the past, but he's good to go in a game carrying a Week 1-high 51.5-point total. There are changes on the Bengals' defense, but this was the worst tackling team in football a year ago. Cincinnati allowed the most yards after catch per reception and 162 total yards per game to opposing running backs. This could be one of the longest probabilities we see all year for an RB1 to score against the Bengals.

Here is another long shot that has my attention because of the possible heavy sets the Lions might run this year under new OC Drew Petzing. While in Arizona, he ran 2-TE sets at the sixth-highest rate in the league, and 3-TE sets at the highest rate. That playbook alone should get Brock Wright, who was already playing 35+ snaps last season, on the field more. Over the last two seasons, 15 of 33 passes inside the 5-yard line for Petzing's Cardinals went to a tight end. Ty Conklin is behind him on the depth chart, but he also just signed on September 1. The real bread and butter is the health of Sam LaPorta, who is dealing with a hip injury. He missed every preseason game and could be on a snap count early in the season after missing the second half of last year. Keep an eye on LaPorta's practice reps today, because Wright is lying in the weeds with a TE-heavy offense at a huge price. Just a half-unit here. 

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

Murray has a good idea of the defense he’ll face in Week 1. He played it every day in practice for the past three years. Former Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon is the new defensive coordinator in Green Bay. On top of being able to find Jefferson and Jordan Addison for deep TD connections, Murray’s ability to make plays outside the pocket gives O’Connell a new twist inside the 20-yard line. He has excellent jump ball options in burly WR Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson. Projections tick as high as 1.6 TD passes and isn’t here just to hand the ball off. I’d play his 2+ touchdowns as high as 48%.

I bought this at 10.5x with a fair price of 7.5x. This one is all about the price, as 9.5% or 10.5x is simply far too much for a starting wide receiver on any team, let alone one facing the Dolphins. Jack Bech secured the No. 3 receiver spot behind Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor. He's projected for just a couple of catches and 23 yards, but this is the price of a WR5, a player likely to see 10-15 snaps, not someone who is likely to see 30+ like Tyler Lockett did a season ago. This is a long shot for a reason, but one that should be priced closer to 6.5x. If you want more action in this game, keep an eye on the Raiders' tight end usage, as Klint Kubiak used 12 personnel at the fifth-highest rate last year. Michael Mayer (7x for a TD) could see a bigger role.

This is the highest-rated touchdown at this probability, according to Covers' new Anytime Touchdown Value Index. Just another tool to help you sort through the noise, get to your pick a lot quicker, and give you back your time. There isn't a category across the many inputs where Dallas Goedert isn't showing value. I know matching last year's 11 TDs will be tough, but the matchup, scoring environment, red-zone role, role certainty, and relative price are all pointing to a buy in Week 1. He scores an 80 on the CATVI. It could be a better passing offense, with more looks under center for Jalen Hurts, while the loss of A.J. Brown opens up more targets for the tight end.

With the Giants in transition mode under new head coach John Harbaugh, I’m happy to take the Cowboys below the key number of 3. The Dallas offense has oodles of continuity after averaging 27.7 points per game last season, and the offseason commitment to bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball will provide an upgrade to a stop unit that allowed the third-most yards and most points per game.  I also anticipate this game closing with Dallas as at least a -3 favorite ahead of Sunday Night Football.

I bought this at 3x with a fair price of 2.7x. I want this new deep connection to work, and if the talk out of camp is true, this is going to be a great price. Bo Nix knows how to avoid sacks, and Waddle's 13.06 aDOT last year would have led the Broncos. Nix just needs to improve his deep ball, which ranked in the bottom third of the league last year. He still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards, and hopefully new playcaller Davis Webb can get more out of his QB. Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost three of their four leading snap-getters in the secondary, including CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook and CB Jaylen Watson. There's plenty of uncertainty in this new secondary, and the early part of the season is likely the best time to fade it before DC Steve Spagnuolo works his magic.