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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 18, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+122 
|
o7.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -190 
|
|
3.96 |
-134 
|
u7.5 -135 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Seymours last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+247)
o0.5+247
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+200 
|
o7.5 -143
|
+1.5 -108
|
|
4.84 |
-180
|
u8.5 -118
|
-1.5 +125
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-1 in Barnetts last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Barnetts last 4 road starts.
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Daniel Espino o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110)
o1.5-110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
+106
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.71 |
-120
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +170
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
NY Mets
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.01 |
+120
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.82 |
-130 
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in White Sox last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+201)
o0.5+201
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-115
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
3.62 |
+118
|
u7.5 -108
|
+1.5 -148
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Ceases last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Texas
- Over is 4-0 in Rockers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Rockers last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
o1.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.73 |
-186
|
o10.5 -113
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
5.46 |
+165
|
u11.0 -125
|
+1.5 +105
|
Seattle
- Mariners are 6-0 in Woos last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games a home underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rockies last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
o1.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.80 |
-105
|
o8.0 -112
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.40 |
+101
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -160
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts on grass.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Astros last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
-110
|
o7.0 -175
|
+1.5 -245
|
|
4.13 |
-105
|
u7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +195
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Leahys last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
o1.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-110
|
o7.5 -132
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.79 |
+102
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-2 in Prielipps last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-3 in Prielipps last 6 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Prielipps last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 home games.
- Under is 10-1 in Angels last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Grayson Rodriguez o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140)
o4.5-120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+180
|
o7.0 -148
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.46 |
-150
|
u7.5 -109
|
-1.5 +145
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Marlins last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 games following a win.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games following a win.
- Padres are 6-0 in Pivettas last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-102
|
o7.0 -162
|
+1.5 -215
|
|
4.97 |
+125
|
u7.5 -102
|
-1.5 +170
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Coles last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Arizona
- Under is 5-0 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
+250
|
o7.5 -125
|
+2.5 -138
|
|
5.33 |
-300
|
u8.5 -128
|
-2.5 +110
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Glasnows last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Jonah Cox o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+375
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
-130
|
o7.5 -132
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.12 |
+112
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -160
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Gassers last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Baltimore
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.76 |
+105
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -199
|
|
|
4.58 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +172
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 games as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.80 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.90 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Peraltas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.94 |
+153
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -143
|
|
|
4.45 |
-175
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
Athletics
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts as an underdog.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts on grass.
- are 8-2 in Lopezs last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+100
|
o8.0 -111
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
4.38 |
-108
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 10-0-1 in Royals last 11 overall.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Camerons last 6 interleague starts.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.54 |
-134
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +122
|
|
4.93 |
+120
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -136
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boyds last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Cincinnati
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.46 |
-115
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
|
3.88 |
+100
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -175
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games as a favorite.
Texas
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.76 |
+100
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
5.04 |
-115
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 6-0 in Wesneskis last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.40 |
+116
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.81 |
-130
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Jobes last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Burkes last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.82 |
+115
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
|
4.60 |
-130
|
u9.0 -125
|
-1.5 +168
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts as a favorite.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase Meidroth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+640)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Chase Meidroth absolutely obliterates lefties (.976 OPS), and should see a pitch to go yard against a pitcher who's allowed two home runs in four career starts. Seriously, Meidroth hasn't seen a southpaw he doesn't like, hitting six of his 14 homers off them with close to 250 fewer at-bats in this situation. Let's ride with Meidroth tonight.
Moneyline
CHW (-129)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I don't trust either of these pitchers on the mound today, but I'm hanging my hat on this motivated Chicago White Sox lineup, who have watched their AL Central lead dwindle and are now tied with the Minnesota Twins for the division lead. The No. 12 prospect for the Detroit Tigers, Andrew Sears, is a lefty up against a team with the eighth-highest wRC+ that loves crushing southpaws. The White Sox own a .741 OPS in this matchup and should take advantage of Sears' early major-league struggles. Let's ride with Chicago today - I'd price this closer to 59%.
TOR
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+405)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Kazuma Okamoto is always the biggest threat to go yard in this lineup - he's got 33 homers this year and has hit three over his last six games. His 13% barrel rate is among the best in baseball, and if Kumar Rocker misses his location with a fastball, expect Okamoto to make it fly - he owns a .502 xSLG against that specific pitch.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Brett Bateman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-155)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
It's about time I included Brett Bateman in my Blue Jays best bet - the No. 20 prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays has done nothing but get on base and create offense since coming over in a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Kevin Gausman. His bat-to-ball skills have been on pure display, rocking just a 15% whiff rate and .333 average across 34 games. Bateman owns a 138 wRC+ and .828 OPS since making his MLB debut with Toronto, and is quickly becoming a matchup-proof bet for me. He comes into tonight with back-to-back multi-hit games under his belt, cashing this play in five of his last six contests. Against the struggling Kumar Rocker, whose 21% K rate leaves a lot to be desired, I expect to see him be a catalyst once more at the top of the lineup.
SEA
@
COL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Dominic Canzone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
o10.5 (-101)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Play this to 52%. Eight of Colorado’s last 10 home games have reached at least 11 runs, and both Coors Field and the Rockies’ struggling pitching staff create plenty of scoring upside.
ATL
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The starting pitching may be steady, but both bullpens have been vulnerable lately. Houston’s relief corps has been especially shaky, carrying a 6.46 FIP with 2.52 HR/9 allowed over the last week. With Atlanta swinging it well, there’s plenty of late-game scoring potential here.
WAS
@
STL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Kyle Leahy u2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I'm playing this down to -110 today, and here's why. Kyle Leahy is getting throttled back as a starter and threw just 38 pitches in his last start, down from 55 in the start before that. He's at career highs in innings pitched, and there's no reason to push him late in September. He's not a K-per-inning pitcher, and getting three innings is a ceiling for him. The projections are calling for 1.31 Ks, but the pitch count is estimated at 24 pitches, which might be low but is certainly in the range of outcomes. Even at 35 pitches, this projects for 1.91 total Ks, which is a smash at plus-money. This should move quickly today and will likely be the last time we see a Leahy K prop. These are the beautiful angles and edges you can find in September's soft markets.
Total Home Runs
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 87°.. Kyle Leahy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Crews today.. Dylan Crews hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
MIN
@
LAA
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Josh Bell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-112)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Josh Bell has quietly been one of the Minnesota Twins’ most consistent bats over the last few weeks, and he gets a favorable matchup tonight against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Bell owns a .500 SLG and .833 OPS, while posting a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate. Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed hitters recently, allowing a 52.6% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate and .420 xBA over his last 30 batters faced. With Bell swinging a hot bat, this sets up as an excellent spot for the veteran slugger tonight.
Total Bases
Luke Keaschall o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Luke Keaschall is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Luke Keaschall's launch angle this season (17.8°) is a significant increase over his 10.2° angle last year.. Luke Keaschall has put up a .337 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
MIA
@
SD
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Dustin Harris u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dustin Harris in the 14th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. This year, Dustin Harris has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 5th-worst venue in MLB for run-scoring.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for mound aces.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+159)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Heriberto Hernandez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Heriberto Hernandez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season's 93.6-mph EV.
NYY
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Spencer Jones o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-102)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Spencer Jones has an excellent opportunity to make an impact against left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez on Friday. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Jones has been absolutely nails against southpaws, batting .593 with a .963 SLG and 1.596 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez has limited hard contact from lefties lately, but the underlying numbers suggest those hitters are still squaring him up, with a .450 xBA, .683 xSLG and .269 ISO over his last 30 faced. Rodriguez is also allowing 3.38 HR/9 during that stretch. Jones' recent production and matchup make him an intriguing play at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Lars Nootbaar lives for the fastball. He has the best power numbers on the Diamondbacks, leading the team with a .507 SLG and 16.3% barrel rate against fastballs this season.
New York’s bullpen has allowed barrels at the third highest rate in September, so there are avenues to hit for power even after the fastball dependent Gerrit Cole departs.
SF
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
I love this matchup for Teoscar Hernandez. He destroys lefties (150 wRC+) and change-ups (161 wRC+) alike, which is great news going against southpaw Cesar Perdomo, who throws his change 29.8% of the time.
Cesar Perdomo (86 Stuff+) and the faulty Giants bullpen (5.09 SIERA this month) will give up a crooked number in this spot. The Boys in Blue have a 4.68 ERA out of the pen in September, and SF's bats have surprisingly had some verve this month (110 wRC+).
ATL
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+102)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Atlanta’s offensive output has evaporated over the last two weeks, slipping to 26th overall with an 84 wRC+ and a meager .291 OBP, while their arms are getting hurt by the long ball (1.74 HR/9).
Houston is generating far more raw power right now (.210 ISO, 105 wRC+). Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick’em spot for the Astros.
DET
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
DET (+116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago’s hitters are offering little resistance down the stretch, batting .211 with a brutal 28.7% strikeout rate over the last fourteen days. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relief corps has turned into an absolute buzzsaw, dialing up a microscopic 2.01 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 1.84 BB/9.
Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.
NYY
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (+135)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Both batting orders are producing at nearly identical clips over the past two weeks (106 wRC+ for NYY, 105 for ARI), but the pitching setups couldn't look more different.
Arizona’s pen is locking down opponents with pinpoint efficiency (2.30 ERA, 3.38 SIERA, 0.33 HR/9), while New York’s relievers are getting barrelled (4.70 SIERA, 1.54 HR/9). Brandon Pfaadt at Chase Field against Cam Schlittler makes Arizona an outstanding home underdog.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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