The New York Mets (52%) will look to put their five-game losing streak behind them against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
They have the pitching advantage with Zac Thornton starting opposite Jose Urquidy and a handful of relievers, making the home team an appealing target in my Phillies vs. Mets predictions.
Let's take a closer look at MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 18.
Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: New York Mets
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m banking on a New York Mets bounce-back up to 55%.
Rookie Zac Thornton has done a good job of limiting runs, especially in lower-total games. He owns a 2.88 ERA in 10 starts with a pre-game total of 8.5 or less.
The Philadelphia Phillies need to jump through hoops because Jesus Luzardo is unavailable, which should lead to Jose Urquidy pitching in a bulk role.
He has a 1.52 WHIP and 5.28 ERA this year. The Mets rank Top-5 in average vs. righties in September, and can string together enough hits to score.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies are 23rd in road average vs. lefties. Combine that with Thornton's 93rd percentile walk rate and there shouldn't be much traffic.
Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
I like the Under to 53%.
Thornton has pitched well in low-scoring games, and held the Phillies to one run over six innings the last time the two sides faced.
He allowed two runs or less in three of his past four, including against the Yankees, Brewers, and Astros – all of whom are in playoff position.
While the Phillies pitching situation is a little uncomfortable for an Under, the Mets aren’t scoring much regardless of matchup. They have plated only seven runs over their last five games.
Phillies vs Mets home run prediction: Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm has taken it up a few notches against southpaws of late, especially with the same 1-2 combination Thornton relies on so heavily.
He has managed a remarkably high 391 ISO, 17.4% barrel rate, and 97.6 miles per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and cutters over the last 25 games.
Thornton – like most lefties – has given up more power to right-handed bats, so the splits are also working in Bohm’s favor.
- ML/RL picks: 116-98, -5.29 units
- Over/Under picks: 110-98-6, -1.45 units
Phillies vs Mets weather
Temperatures in the mid-70s are expected, with winds blowing in. Boost to the pitchers.
Phillies vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Phillies 49% | Mets 52%
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (67%) | Mets -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (50%) | Under 8.5 (51%)
Phillies vs Mets trend
New York has hit the Game Total Under in 17 of the last 25 games (+10.45 units, 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Friday, September 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jose Urquidy (2-2, 5.28 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (4-5, 3.44 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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