NFL AI Predictions for Week 2: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

Neither defense earned much benefit of the doubt in its opener. Buffalo gave up 31 points to Houston, while Detroit needed overtime to escape New Orleans 31–30. Josh Allen gives the Bills a way to keep moving even when a play breaks down, but the Lions shouldn't need a perfect offensive night to stay within reach. Our 29–26 Buffalo win leaves Detroit inside the 4.5-point spread.

We're taking Lions +4.5 and Over 53.5 in the first regular-season game at Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium. The 55-point forecast is our highest of the week. Buffalo is the straight-up pick, but laying more than a field goal asks for a little more separation than we expect in this matchup.

Carolina's offense showed more than its defense in Week 1. The Panthers scored 37 points against Chicago, but allowing 59 made it impossible to keep up. Atlanta has an obvious place to start with Bijan Robinson, whose work as a receiver can be just as useful as his carries while the Falcons sort through their quarterback injuries. Carolina needs to tackle much better before we can trust it as a road favorite.

Falcons +2.5 is the ATS selection in a projected 26–21 home win, and that 47-point forecast also puts us on Over 43.5. Atlanta has to clean up the interceptions and missed scoring opportunities from its opener. If it does, Robinson gives this offense enough to turn a competitive divisional game into its first win.

Houston's offense did enough to win its opener; the defense couldn't finish the job. The Texans scored 31 against Buffalo and still came away empty. Cincinnati presents another difficult passing-game assignment with Joe Burrow, but its win over Tampa Bay also came with four takeaways. Houston's job is to make the Bengals earn their possessions and field position rather than hand them the same sort of help.

The model puts the Texans ahead 28–22, enough to lay Houston -2.5. That doesn't require the defense to shut down Cincinnati, just to find more stops than it managed against Buffalo. We're also on Over 46.5, with a 50-point projection leaving room for both offenses to contribute. The home side is our stronger lean here.

Tampa Bay's first fix is simple: keep hold of the football. Four turnovers helped undo the Buccaneers in Cincinnati, while Cleveland's offense struggled throughout a 34–10 loss in Jacksonville. Those are different problems. Tampa Bay has a clearer route to a better offensive showing if it removes the giveaways; Cleveland needs to sustain possessions well enough to stop its defense from spending the afternoon protecting short fields.

We have the Buccaneers winning 25–19, but that still leaves Cleveland inside the 8.5-point number. Browns +8.5 is a points play, with Tampa Bay remaining the projected winner. Over 41.5 follows from the 44-point forecast. The Browns don't need a dramatic turnaround to cover this spread, but they do need considerably more offense than they showed in Week 1.

The Jets gave themselves a workable formula in Tennessee: run the ball and make the other offense play from behind. Breece Hall topped 100 rushing yards in the 23–10 win. That matters against a Green Bay team coming off a 39–22 loss in Minnesota, because productive early-down runs would keep New York from asking its passing game to rescue every possession.

Our forecast still favors the Packers, 24–21, so the extra half point makes Jets +3.5 the ATS pick. This is a narrow disagreement with the spread. The same restraint applies to Over 44.5: the projected total is 45. We like Green Bay to recover with a win while New York makes the home opener competitive.

Chicago's running game is the first problem Minnesota has to solve. The Bears rushed for 291 yards against Carolina, giving Caleb Williams plenty of help in a 59-point opener. Minnesota can threaten a defense through the air, too, but its quarterback situation remains unsettled: Kyler Murray is in concussion protocol after Carson Wentz helped finish the comeback against Green Bay. There isn't a confirmed Week 2 starter to build the argument around yet.

The score call is much tighter than the market: Bears 25, Vikings 24. We're taking Minnesota +5.5, with enough room to cover a field-goal loss. Over 48.5 is only a half-point lean against our 49-point projection. Chicago's offensive start was impressive, but we're expecting Minnesota to make this a four-quarter game.

Baltimore can punish a defense for committing too many bodies to either the run or the pass. Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards in Indianapolis, and Derrick Henry added 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns. New Orleans now has to handle that combination after giving Detroit all it could manage in a 31–30 overtime loss. Keeping Henry from taking over on early downs is a good place to start; it doesn't solve the Jackson problem.

Ravens -7.5 is our pick in a projected 28–20 home win, though the forecast clears that number by only half a point. The total offers a little more separation: 48 projected points against 46.5. We're on the Over, with New Orleans contributing enough offense to keep Baltimore working.

Tennessee has to hold up against the run to give itself a chance. The Titans allowed the Jets to rush for 152 yards, including 102 from Breece Hall, in their opener. Philadelphia can put similar pressure on a defense with Saquon Barkley, and staying ahead of the chains would make this road assignment much easier. The Eagles only edged Washington 24–22, though, so we're not rushing to ask them for a blowout.

A 25–18 Philadelphia win points to Titans +7.5. That is a thin ATS lean, with the number offering just half a point beyond our projected margin. We also like Over 39.5 against a 43-point forecast. Tennessee's offensive response matters to that total; another 10-point effort would make it a much tougher ask.

Pittsburgh's pass rush gives it a chance to make this uncomfortable for New England. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith each had two sacks against Atlanta, and Watt added a pick-six. The Patriots need more from an offense that scored only 10 points in Seattle, particularly when it comes to avoiding the obvious passing situations that let those edge rushers attack. New England has had extra time between games to make its corrections.

The model favors the Patriots 23–20, but we're taking Steelers +5.5. Pittsburgh can cover without repeating its defensive touchdown from the opener, which is an important distinction when weighing that 20–13 win. Over 41.5 is the total pick, with our 43-point forecast suggesting a modest offensive rebound for New England rather than a high-scoring afternoon.

Jacksonville brings a much cleaner offensive opener into this matchup. Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions against Cleveland. Denver, meanwhile, scored only 10 points in Monday's loss to Kansas City. The Broncos have a short turnaround to get their offense moving, and leaving Jacksonville with too many possessions would put more pressure on a defense that just allowed 31 points.

Jaguars +2.5 comes with an outright call: Jacksonville 23, Denver 22. We aren't projecting another comfortable Jaguars win, especially on the road, but Lawrence's efficient start makes the underdog case easier to see. Over 44.5 is a much thinner selection. Our total lands at 45, so there is little cushion if either offense struggles to finish drives.

Las Vegas has a useful answer when the passing game needs an easy completion: Ashton Jeanty. He caught two touchdowns and ran for 102 yards against Miami, giving Kirk Cousins help without requiring a high-volume passing day. The Chargers need to be more consistent after scoring on their opening drive against Arizona and managing only seven more points the rest of the way. Their two turnovers made an uneven performance worse.

We expect Los Angeles to respond with a 24–18 win, but Raiders +6.5 sneaks inside that six-point forecast. This is one of the week's smallest ATS gaps. Under 43.5 is the accompanying pick, with a projected total of 42 and neither offense being asked to turn this into a shootout.

Miami needs to protect its quarterback before worrying about keeping pace with San Francisco. The Dolphins allowed five sacks in Las Vegas and scored only 13 points. The 49ers, meanwhile, opened with a 27–7 win over the Rams in Melbourne. Another afternoon of stalled possessions would make this a difficult road assignment for Miami, particularly if its defense has to keep going back onto the field.

The forecast reflects that mismatch with a 27–18 San Francisco win. We're still taking Dolphins +12.5, because a nine-point defeat would cover the substantial head start. This isn't an outright upset call. Under 45.5 is a narrow companion pick against our 45-point total, with Miami's ability to sustain drives carrying much of the uncertainty.

Seattle's quarterback situation makes the offensive side of this matchup harder to read. Sam Darnold has a glute injury with no firm return date, and Drew Lock finished the 13–10 win over New England. Arizona brings a more encouraging offensive opener after beating the Chargers 26–14, with Jacoby Brissett finding reliable work underneath through Trey McBride. Seattle needs to tackle those completions before they become easy first downs.

Our score forecast is Seahawks 25, Cardinals 20, which puts Seattle -4.5 just inside the projected margin. It's a small ATS lean, and Darnold's availability remains relevant to the matchup. Over 41.5 has more room against the 45-point projection, but it does ask Seattle's offense for a noticeable improvement on its opener.

Dallas has to do a better job keeping an opposing quarterback out of rhythm. Jaxson Dart threw three touchdowns in the Giants' 28–20 win over the Cowboys, and Washington arrives after pushing Philadelphia to a two-point finish. The Commanders don't need to turn every possession into an explosive play. Staying on schedule and making Dallas defend the full field would give them a good chance to keep this close.

Cowboys 27, Commanders 26 is the call, so we're taking Washington +3.5. The spread gives us room beyond both a one-point game and a field-goal finish. We also like Over 50.5 against a 53-point projection. This is our second-highest projected total of the week, behind only Detroit–Buffalo.

Indianapolis needs a much better defensive performance to keep Patrick Mahomes from settling in. The Colts surrendered 506 yards to Baltimore, getting hurt both on the ground and through the air. Kansas City just put 31 points on Denver, so there is little room for Indianapolis to repeat those breakdowns. The Colts need to win more early downs and give their pass rush a chance to matter.

The model has Kansas City winning 27–21, leaving Colts +6.5 as a narrow ATS selection. We like the Chiefs to control enough of the game to win, with Indianapolis doing enough offensively to stay inside the number. Over 47.5 is equally close to our forecast: 48 projected points means only a half point separates the two.

The Rams need to get their offense back on schedule after a seven-point opener. Their loss to San Francisco in Melbourne leaves plenty to correct, while the Giants arrive with a 28–20 win over Dallas and a three-touchdown passing performance from Jaxson Dart. New York has already shown it can finish possessions. Los Angeles needs to make those drives harder before it can think about creating separation.

We're backing a Rams response at home: Los Angeles 27, New York 20. Rams -6.5 gets the ATS nod, though a seven-point forecast makes it a slim lean. Under 48.5 follows from the 47-point projection. The expected improvement from Los Angeles doesn't require another big scoring night from the Giants.