Don't balk at Reid Detmers' 4.05 ERA. His 3.33 xERA and strong whiff and strikeout rates give a glimpse into the pitcher he truly is, and that's someone better than surface numbers indicate. Meanwhile, Peter Lambert doesn't rack up the strikeouts as frequently as Detmers, and he faces an Angels lineup that leads the majors in K% (25%). While the Astros have a better overall offense, Detmers can neutralize it for a while, and I don't expect the bullpens to surrender too much headway for the Over to be in play.

Once again, it's time to fade Michael Lorenzen! The Rockies hurler has a 6.53 ERA on the season, and his 5.66 xERA ranks in the seventh percentile. Nothing looks good under the hood, with chase, whiff, and strikeout rates all ranking in the 10th percentile or worse. He gets knocked around early and often, so I'm backing two of the Padres' best hitters in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. Merrill has struggled at times, but his peripherals, particularly in hard-hit rate, profile well and will help him against a past-his-prime righty like Lorenzen. Michael King's 21% K-rate is lower than his career norm, but the Rockies go down on strikes with enough regularity that I like his chances of getting six tonight.