Full slate Friday! Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 18, including why the Josh Bell is going to pop off against Grayson Rodriguez.
And we have so much more to get into from the MLB player props market today so let's dive in.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Josh Bell |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -112 |
 Pete Alonso |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -117 |
 Spencer Jones |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -102 |
Josh Bell Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-112)
Pretty excited about this one because I have no idea if I have ever bet on Josh Bell, or when the last time was, so let's dive into why the Minnesota Twins veteran bat is a-go today.
Mr. Bell has been one of the most consistent bats on the Twins over the last few weeks. In his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he sports a .500 SLG and .833 OPS, while producing a 56.5% hard-hit rate and a 17.4% barrel rate.
This evening, Bell draws Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has allowed left-handed hitters to do whatever they want in his last few outings. The last 30 he has faced are producing a 52.6% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate and just a 31.6% ground-ball rate. Those lefties also own a .420 xBA and .818 xSLG during that stretch.
This should be a great spot for the veteran slugger to boom at the dish this evening.
Take this down to -120.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, ABTV
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-117)
Is he too hot, or are we finding him at a good time? Who cares. We are backing one of the hottest bats in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso.
Over his last 10 games, the veteran slugger has maintained a .605 SLG and .316 ISO. On top of that, in his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he has posted a 22.2% barrel rate.
Dustin May takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers this evening. The right-hander has been allowing a lot of quality contact to right-handed hitters in his last few outings. His last 30 batters faced have produced a near-20% barrel rate, while posting a .365 xBA, .594 xSLG and .364 xwOBA.
Backing the hot streak feels worth it based on how poorly May has been pitching. Plus, the price is great for a guy who is going over this prop 66.67% of the time when rated elite on Batters-Box.
Take this down to -130.
- Time: 7:06 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, BREW
Spencer Jones Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-102)
The perfect Friday to back the New York Yankees' new big fella, Spencer Jones. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup against Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, Jones has been nails against lefties.
The Yankees slugger, over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, owns a .593 BA, .963 SLG and 1.596 OPS while generating a ton of hard contact.
It is extremely interesting that Rodriguez has not been allowing a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters as of late. However, the last 30 he has faced still own a .450 xBA, .683 xSLG and .269 ISO. So, those hitters are still making high-quality contact. The southpaw also owns a 3.38 HR/9 during that stretch.
Take this down to -120 at the most.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, ARID
- Prop picks: 516-1003, +13.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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