Gerrit Cole has struggled to keep runs off the board over the last month, allowing three or more in four of his past five starts.
This is not a good spot to right the ship, which is why I'm backing Arizona with my Yankees vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 18.
Who will win Yankees vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I like the Arizona Diamondbacks up to 52%.
Power is the name of the game for the New York Yankees, and this is a tough matchup for them to put that trait to use.
Eduardo Rodriguez has held opponents to a 33% hard-hit rate this season, ranking in the 86th percentile. He’s tightened the screws even further of late, with that number sitting at 20.7% the past 30 days.
Gerrit Cole has gone through a rough patch in that span (5.36 xERA, 53.8% hard-hit rate) and offers the Diamondbacks an easier path to offense.
COVERS INTEL: Cole ranks 26th among today's projected starters in xERA over the last month.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
This game has sneaky run potential, making the Over appealing to 56%.
Cole is a fastball-first pitcher and that could get him into real trouble against the Diamondbacks. They have crushed the fastball, leading the majors in runs above average.
Cole is not in great form to begin with, and giving this Diamondbacks offense a steady dose of fastballs will only make his life harder.
E-Rod is effective at limiting hard contact but this will be a big test. He’s not as effective against lefties, and the Yankees have plenty of good ones to throw at him.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar lives for the fastball. He has the best power numbers on the Diamondbacks, leading the team with a .507 SLG and 16.3% barrel rate against fastballs this season.
He has hammered the ball consistently, generating hard contact at a hefty 67.3% clip.
Nootbaar will make loud contact if Cole makes a mistake. In his current form, Cole is making plenty.
New York’s bullpen has allowed barrels at the third highest rate in September, so there are avenues to hit for power even after Cole departs.
- ML/RL picks: 116-98, -5.29 units
- Over/Under picks: 110-98-6, -1.45 units
Yankees vs Diamondbacks weather
This game will be played indoors.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 51% | Diamondbacks 50%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (40%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (61%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)
Yankees vs Diamondbacks trend
New York has hit the Over in 16 of its last 24 games (+8.45 units, 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Yankees vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, KPNX-NBC12 |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (8-9, 3.67 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Eduardo Rodriguez (15-6, 2.62 ERA) |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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