The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -12° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Shane McClanahan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Nimmo in today's game.. Brandon Nimmo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brandon Nimmo in today's matchup.. In the past two weeks, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.

It's a getaway game for both clubs, and let's face it, neither offense has looked good out of the break, especially in this series. Minnesota has scored four or more runs in just three of its last 10 games. In the other seven, the Twins have combined for only 11 runs, including last night's 4-0 shutout loss. The Bobby Witt-less Royals haven't been much better offensively, but they did get seven strong innings from Randy Dobnak last night, leaving the bullpen fresh. Minnesota also hasn't needed its high-leverage relievers since the weekend. Even if neither starter goes deep, the late innings should feature the A arms on both sides. These are two of the coldest offenses in baseball right now, and with fresh bullpens, an afternoon getaway game, and an inflated total, I'm betting the Under 9.5 down to 9 at -110. The wind blowing in at 11 mph is the cherry on top.

This matinee might have the best home run matchup on the board. Yankees starter Ryan Weathers is one of the hardest-hit pitchers on today's slate, and his home run luck could finally run out against Chase Meidroth at a massive price. Weathers has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, with 29 of the 35 home runs he has allowed coming in righty-on-righty matchups. That's where I'm finding value today. Meidroth is slugging .564 over the last two weeks, just 17 points behind team leader Munetaka Murakami. His 44% hard-hit rate is the real deal, and his .398 xwOBA ranks second on the club over that stretch, suggesting this isn't just a hot streak. The middle-of-the-order bat already has three hits in this series, all of them for extra bases. The Yankees' bullpen has also shown some cracks, allowing seven runs and three home runs over the first two games. On a short slate, this is the type of long shot I'm willing to back. I'd play it down to +750.

The underlying numbers point toward runs in this matchup. St. Louis has been consistently producing hard contact, posting nearly a 45% hard hit rate over its last six games, and now faces Javier Assad, who has allowed a 45.10% hard hit rate and nearly an 8% barrel rate across his last five starts. That combination makes this an ideal spot for the Cardinals offense to finally break through. On the other side, the Cubs have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball and should have no problem contributing as well. With both lineups capable of putting up runs, I like the over.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects A.J. Ewing as the 8th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.. A.J. Ewing is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. A.J. Ewing will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

I usually break these games down from a baseball perspective, but I think it's worth focusing on the price for Thursday's matchup because that's where the value really lies. Not only do I like the Reds on the moneyline, but Polymarket is offering by far the best number on the board and is significantly off market with their price. The Reds are trading at 48 cents against the Pirates, while most sportsbooks and prediction markets have them priced as a 51-cent favorite. That discrepancy alone makes the 48-cent price at Polymarket appealing, but I think there's even more value than the market suggests because I make the Reds closer to a 54-cent favorite. So, not only do I believe there's value backing the Reds relative to the consensus market price, but that edge is amplified by locking in the 48-cent number at Polymarket on Thursday.

A high total leaves room for a lower-scoring script if Atlanta’s lineup stays quiet. Washington’s bullpen has been sharp lately, while the Braves enter in poor offensive form. The main concern is Atlanta’s struggling relief corps, but if most of the damage comes from Washington, this can still stay contained overall.

Let's take another big swing, this time at Sutter Health Park, where the ball flies, and the Athletics' pitching staff is hanging on by a thread. Mason Barnett is making his first start of the season after working in a bulk relief role. The rotation injuries continue to pile up with Luis Severino, JT Ginn, Jeffrey Springs, and Gunnar Hoglund all sidelined. Barnett is a home-run-prone arm with just a 33% groundball rate and will eventually hand things over to a bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA over the last two weeks. Andruw Monasterio crushes left-handed pitching, and with three left-handed relievers available in the Athletics' bullpen, he should see favorable matchups throughout the game. Monasterio also leads the Red Sox with a .714 slugging percentage over the last two weeks, while his .511 wOBA ranks sixth in baseball during that span. There should be plenty of balls leaving the yard at Sutter Health Park today.

Let's stay in San Diego and attack the Over on a modest strikeout total for Padres starter JP Sears. The lefty is making a start after spending some time in a bulk relief role. He threw 55 pitches five days ago and has already been stretched out to 95 pitches earlier this season. He likely won't get that far today, but 75-80 pitches is certainly in play. THE BAT projects him around four strikeouts on 72 pitches, but that might be a little conservative. The Giants strike out 2.3% more often against left-handed pitching, and Sears has reached at least three strikeouts in all six of his appearances this season, giving him a solid floor. The Padres also used five bullpen arms yesterday and could be without three right-handed relievers, which adds more value to Sears getting through the lineup multiple times. There is plenty of meat on this bone with a fair price around -125.

Seattle has dropped 15 of its last 20 road games, and things don't get any easier tonight. Bryan Woo has been awful away from home, posting a 6.52 ERA in road starts thanks to getting shelled on multiple occasions. Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank fourth in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Roki Sasaki is also trending in the right direction, allowing just one earned run across his last two starts ahead of a matchup with a Mariners lineup that's struggling vs right-handed pitching.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.