Another full slate of games across the majors means lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB home run props.
My MLB player props will start things off with Alex Bregman, followed by Fernando Tatis Jr.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 19.
MLB home run props for today
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Alex Bregman
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Home run prediction: Alex Bregman (20%)
Play up to 21%.
Alex Bregman has clubbed two home runs in his last six games, and he also has a .550 ISO during that span with a .400 average. The veteran is scorching hot, and his 57.9% fly-ball rate recently provides support for a potential bomb tonight.
The matchup is also intriguing for this pick. Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo has a 7.04 FIP in his previous two starts while allowing 2.08 HR/9. The Reds' bullpen is also having trouble with the long ball, giving up 1.41 HR/9 in its last 28 innings of work.
Bregman has the current profile to make Cincy's staff pay tonight.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Reds.TV
Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24%)
Play up to 25%.
It took Fernando Tatis Jr. some time to find his power stroke this season, but he's undoubtedly come alive. The San Diego Padres superstar has three home runs in the last week and a .414 ISO. He's now up to 23 bombs on the year after sitting at just five homers before the All-Star break.
Tatis has a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate in his last seven contests, and he faces a vulnerable Eury Perez tonight. The Miami Marlins righty owns a 6.28 FIP over the last month while surrendering 2.08 HR/9.
Miami's bullpen has also allowed 1.27 HR/9 over its previous 28 1/3 frames. Tatis has multiple paths here.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, Marlins.TV
- HR picks: 18-100, -16.89 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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