Saturday's 15-game MLB slate offers plenty of value we can attack. We have some strong favorites and a few underdogs that will hopefully add to our bankrolls.
Read on for our MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 18.
MLB moneyline picks for September 19
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Brewersvs  Orioles |
59% |
 Red Soxvs  Rays |
54% |
 Philliesvs  Mets |
56% |
 Athleticsvs  Guardians |
64% |
 Royalsvs  Pirates |
55% |
 Cubsvs  Reds |
55% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Rangers |
48% |
 Bravesvs  Astros |
53% |
 Tigersvs  White Sox |
46% |
 Nationalsvs  Cardinals |
54% |
 Yankeesvs  Diamondbacks |
44% |
 Marinersvs  Rockies |
55% |
 Marlinsvs  Padres |
59% |
 Giantsvs  Dodgers |
66% |
 Twinsvs  Angels |
48% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 19.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 19
Brewers vs Orioles: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 59%
Baltimore’s bats have been a strikeout factory, hacking away empty on 30.7% of their plate appearances while managing a measly 95 wRC+ across the last fortnight.
The O’s relievers have actually performed with poise (2.56 ERA, 3.74 SIERA), but trying to hold down a smoking-hot Milwaukee offense (.292 AVG, .374 OBP, 133 wRC+) is a tall order. Robert Gasser finds himself in an ideal bounce spot against a lineup that beats itself, making Milwaukee the sharp call.
Red Sox vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 54%
Boston has fallen into a deep offensive rut over the past two weeks, limping through games with a .203 batting average and a dreadful 74 wRC+. Their relief corps has thrown absolute gas (1.95 ERA, 3.11 SIERA), yet they get zero support from the bats.
Tampa Bay continues to produce loud contact (.452 SLG, 117 wRC+), giving Freddy Peralta all the breathing room he needs at the Trop against rookie Payton Tolle to cash this play.
Phillies vs Mets: Mets
Mets win probability: 56%
Philadelphia is scuffling at the plate right when games matter most, generating an anemic 86 wRC+ and a soft .305 OBP over the last fourteen days while the bullpen has cratered to a 5.50 ERA and 2.25 HR/9.
New York possesses the clear edge in late-game execution, flashing big thunder (.182 ISO, 111 wRC+) and a dominant relief crew that misses bats in bunches (10.29 K/9, 21.5% K-BB%, 3.01 SIERA). Christian Scott gets my backing.
Athletics vs Guardians: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 64%
The Athletics lineup has ground to a complete halt, scraping the bottom of the barrel with a major-league worst 68 wRC+ and an embarrassing .262 OBP across their last fourteen days.
Cleveland counters by running out baseball’s premier bullpen (2.81 ERA, 2.55 SIERA, 11.86 K/9). With Tanner Bibee on the bump and the A’s bullpen putting runners on base at will (1.47 WHIP, 4.45 SIERA), the Guardians are worth laying the juice here.
Royals vs Pirates: Pirates
Pirates win probability: 55%
Kansas City is struggling to put barrel to ball, laboring under a .197 average and an anemic .136 ISO over the past fortnight, all while their bullpen gets tattooed for a 1.67 WHIP and .308 opponent average.
Bubba Chandler gets a plush assignment against a lineup searching for answers, and Pittsburgh’s bullpen does a great job keeping balls in the yard (0.52 HR/9, 4.10 SIERA). Back the Pirates at this solid price.
Cubs vs Reds: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 55%
Cincinnati hitters are chasing everything out of the zone, posting a 27.5% whiff rate and a lackluster .301 OBP over the last two weeks, while their relievers are failing to put out fires (5.64 ERA, 66.3% strand rate).
Chicago brings strong plate discipline (11.1% walk rate, 0.67 BB/K, 120 wRC+) to Great American Ball Park. Matthew Boyd has the tools to keep Cincinnati off-balance, giving the Cubs great road value.
Blue Jays vs Rangers: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 48%
Texas continues to swing through pitches at an elevated 24.9% rate over the last fortnight, and their bullpen numbers are showing real cracks under pressure (4.66 ERA, 4.15 SIERA).
Toronto’s hitters are putting together clinic-level at-bats, striking out just 16.0% of the time while cruising to a 119 wRC+. Jose Soriano commands the edge over Cal Quantrill, making the Blue Jays a terrific plus-money road play.
Braves vs Astros: Astros
Astros win probability: 53%
Atlanta’s offensive output has evaporated over the last two weeks, slipping to 26th overall with an 84 wRC+ and a meager .291 OBP, while their arms are getting hurt by the long ball (1.74 HR/9).
Houston is generating far more raw power right now (.210 ISO, 105 wRC+). Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick’em spot for the Astros.
Tigers vs White Sox: Tigers
Tigers win probability: 46%
Chicago’s hitters are offering little resistance down the stretch, batting .211 with a brutal 28.7% strikeout rate over the last fourteen days. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relief corps has turned into an absolute buzzsaw, dialing up a microscopic 2.01 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 1.84 BB/9.
Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.
Nationals vs Cardinals: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 54%
Washington’s late-inning options are melting down on a nightly basis, issuing free passes at an unsustainable 6.17 BB/9 clip with a league-worst 5.40 SIERA. They aren't masking it at the plate either (84 wRC+, .299 OBP).
St. Louis boasts plenty of swing-and-miss depth in the pen (10.99 K/9, 3.72 SIERA), giving Michael McGreevy a secure floor to close out Washington at a strong price.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 44%
Both batting orders are producing at nearly identical clips over the past two weeks (106 wRC+ for NYY, 105 for ARI), but the pitching setups couldn't look more different.
Arizona’s pen is locking down opponents with pinpoint efficiency (2.30 ERA, 3.38 SIERA, 0.33 HR/9), while New York’s relievers are getting barrelled (4.70 SIERA, 1.54 HR/9). Brandon Pfaadt at Chase Field against Cam Schlittler makes Arizona an outstanding home underdog.
Mariners vs Rockies: Mariners
Mariners win probability: 55%
Colorado’s bullpen has waved the white flag down the stretch, hemorrhaging a 7.26 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 4.49 SIERA. That spells immediate trouble against a Seattle lineup that sits third in baseball over the last fortnight with a 121 wRC+ and .337 OBP.
Bryce Miller has plenty of run cushion to work through thin air against Tomoyuki Sugano, setting up Seattle as a terrific road favorite.
Marlins vs Padres: Padres
Padres win probability: 59%
San Diego is flat-out obliterating baseballs, pacing all thirty teams across the last fourteen days with a monstrous .292/.351/.500 slash line and a 135 wRC+.
Miami’s bullpen is struggling with zone command (5.43 BB/9, 4.50 SIERA), and their lineup won't be able to match strides against a Padres bridge striking out over 10 batters per nine with a 3.06 SIERA. San Diego is priced to move behind Casey Mize.
Giants vs Dodgers: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 66%
Logan Webb may keep San Francisco afloat through five innings, but the Giants' relief corps simply cannot be trusted, owning a dismal 5.36 SIERA and a near-nonexistent 0.5% K-BB% over the last fortnight.
Los Angeles wears down arms with disciplined plate appearances (13.6% walk rate, 118 wRC+) and shuts down rallies late (3.39 SIERA, 9.33 K/9), making the Dodgers a solid combo leg option.
Twins vs Angels: Twins
Twins win probability: 48%
Minnesota’s bats have certainly gone quiet (74 wRC+), but the Angels are equally stagnant at the plate, striking out 28.3% of the time with a 91 wRC+.
The true edge lies in Minnesota’s pitching staff: Joe Ryan brings noticeably sharper command than Reid Detmers, and the Twins' bullpen has been quietly carving up lineups with an 11.52 K/9 and 3.55 SIERA. Take Minnesota as a live plus-money dog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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