With eight games left in the season, the Chicago Cubs want to secure a Wild Card spot, and my Cubs vs. Reds predictions like their chances against a Cincinnati team just playing out the string.
Read on for more with my free MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 19.
Who will win Cubs vs Reds today: Cubs -1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’d stick with the Chicago Cubs giving the runs until 52%.
The Cincinnati Reds are in a stretch of 19 straight games against division or Wild Card leaders. Prior to Friday’s series-opening win, Cincinnati had won just two of 10 against the frontrunners and is 39-50 (.438) against winning teams this season.
Seven of their last eight losses were by 3+ runs, including three by 5+, so giving the runs isn’t too much of an ask.
Chicago is 44-32 (.579) against losing teams.
COVERS INTEL: Boyd's velocity (23rd percentile), whiff rate (27th), strikeout rate (25th) and barrel rate (31%) are all well below average. So if he’s not hitting his spots, opponents will be hitting him.
Cubs vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 9.5
The Cubs have gone Over in their last four. The Reds have only been Under four times in the last nine. The pitching matchup should keep that trend going.
The Cubs have lost Matthew Boyd’s last six starts, as his ERA has risen from 3.50 to 4.16 over that span. His control has also slipped. After walking zero or one batter in seven of his first 13 starts this season, he’s had multiple walks in six of his last seven.
The Reds are starting Nick Lodolo, who's given up .928 OPS over the last month. He hasn’t had a win since July 4 and has given up seven home runs and 19 runs in his last five outings.
Cubs vs Reds home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the Cubs’ hottest hitter. He has three home runs in the last four games and has gone deep 12 times in the last month, posting a 1.021 OPS over that stretch. He’s hitting .400 against Lodolo in his career and has a .938 OPS against him.
Lodolo is giving up home runs twice as often in the second half of the season — every 15.4 batters, compared to a homer every 31 prior to the All-Star break. Left-handed batters are also hitting him at a .910 OPS, compared to .855 for righties.
- ML/RL picks: 32-41, -4.94 units
- Over/Under picks: 45-23, +9.80 units
Cubs vs Reds weather
There’s a possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be in the low 80s falling into the 70s.
Cubs vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Cubs 57% | Reds 44%
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 | Reds +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Cubs vs Reds trend
The Cubs have hit the team total Over in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds.
How to watch Cubs vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, Reds.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (8-5, 4.16 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Lodolo (3-5, 5.12 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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