The Tampa Bay Rays are a league-best 53-26 on home soil, and my Red Sox vs. Rays predictions believe they have a great chance of notching another win today.
Freddy Peralta gives Tampa Bay the pitching edge opposite of Brayan Bello. They also have the more in-form offense.
With advantages all over the place, I'm backing Tampa Bay with my free MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 19
Who will win Red Sox vs Rays today: Rays moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m on the Tampa Bay Rays up to 61%.
It’s generally a hit parade when Brayan Bello takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox. He ranks in the 20th percentile in batting average and the second percentile in xBA.
The Rays are built on stringing together hit after hit, and this is a great matchup for them to do just that.
Freddy Peralta has quietly pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 3.28 xERA over his last seven starts. He has found his game and should enjoy success against a Red Sox team hitting .235 vs. righties in September.
COVERS INTEL: The Rays rank third in both average and SLG against right-handed pitching since July 19.
Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
The Over is a little short here, making it a buy up to 55%.
The Red Sox are 6-3 to the Over in Bello starts, and 4-1 when facing an offense that ranks in the top half of the league in run production.
He routinely allows hits in bulk, and there’s no reason to expect different facing a Rays team leading the majors in average.
Peralta has pitched much better with the Rays, but he’s still getting touched up against quality offenses.
Since joining the Rays, he's allowed 10 runs over two starts against top-10 teams in OBP vs. RHP.
Red Sox vs Rays home run prediction: Jonathan Aranda
Bello gives up a lot more power to lefties, allowing 1.46 HR/9 compared to 0.38 HR/9 when facing righties.
That’s a drastic split favoring left-handed hitters, and Jonathan Aranda is my preferred target.
Aranda has enjoyed a lot of success against the sinker-changeup combination Bello is heavily reliant on. Isolating those two pitches thrown by righties, Aranda’s ISO sits at .235 and his wOBA is approaching .400.
Aranda is also 6-for-17 (.353 average) against Bello in his career.
- ML/RL picks: 117-99, -5.29 units
- Over/Under picks: 111-99-6, -1.54 units
Red Sox vs Rays weather
This game will be played in a dome.
Red Sox vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 42% | Rays 59%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (61%) | Rays -1.5 (40%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (51%) | Under 7.5 (50%)
Red Sox vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay has hit the moneyline in 15 of the last 22 games (+5.20 units, 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays.
How to watch Red Sox vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, Rays.TV |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (6-7, 4.74 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (9-11, 4.67 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
