Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Toronto's Revenge Game

The Leafs are starting to hit their stride and both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are looking like their best selves. How will that translate to their trip to Ottawa to face the Senators tonight? Read on for our best NHL betting picks.

Dec 7, 2023 • 10:47 ET • 4 min read
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We’ve got a busy NHL slate tonight, including the Battle of Ontario with the Ottawa Senators hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Sens got the better of the Buds last month, but I expect a much better effort from Toronto this time around.  

The NHL odds suggest Toronto should come out victorious, but I think the Leafs win it convincingly. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this December 7 matchup. 

Maple Leafs vs Senators odds

Maple Leafs vs Senators predictions

It’s time to renew the rivalry, folks!

The Ottawa Senators defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3 on November 8th. Since then, Toronto has turned things around and stabilized the goalie position with Joseph Woll. Meanwhile, the Sens have been playing .500 hockey since then and added an advisor behind the bench to help with the team.

Ottawa, however, comes into tonight’s game on a two-game winning streak with victories against Seattle and the New York Rangers. Toronto is coming off an overtime loss to the Boston Bruins on Saturday night after two straight wins in extra time. 

The Leafs played well in their loss to Boston, even winning the "expected goals" battle. This essentially means the process was there for Toronto but got a little unlucky in the result... a la William Nylander blowing a tire at his own blue line to send in a couple of Bruins players alone on Woll in overtime to end it. 

At some point, though, the Leafs are going to put together a full-game effort and win again in regulation. The team hasn’t posted a 60-minute win since November 17th in Sweden. This matchup feels like a good spot for the Leafs to end that dry spell and not only win a game against an inferior team but win this one in regulation too.

Toronto is playing much better hockey lately, averaging a league-high 15.73 high-danger shots over its last five games with an expected-goals average of 3.55 per 60 minutes, which ranks fourth in the NHL over that span. The Sens have been a middle-of-the-pack team defensively this year to go along with sub-par goaltending that’s combined for an .893 team save percentage. This should allow Toronto to find success offensively tonight.  

It appears that Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are inching toward being MVP-level players again after 16’s hat-trick performance vs. Seattle and AM34’s two-goal output against Boston. Look for them to carry that momentum over into tonight’s game and for both players to make their mark on the game. 

Additionally, the Leafs hold a big edge with their eighth-ranked power play against a Senators penalty kill that ranks 28th in the NHL (73.5%). That should provide an opportunity for Toronto to score and pull ahead in the goal race tonight. 

My best bet: Maple Leafs 3-way moneyline (+120 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay

Maple Leafs moneyline

Over 5.5

Auston Matthews anytime goal

For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll take the Leafs on the moneyline. The Leafs are the better team and have been winners in six of their last eight meetings. With Toronto turning things in the right direction of late, I expect them to continue their strong play tonight with a win. 

Next up, let’s go with an alternate total and go with Over 5.5. Both the Leafs and Sens average 3+ goals-for and 3+ goals-against per game this season. They’ve also both hit a total of 6.0 goals or more in seven of their last 10 games. 

For my final leg, let’s take an anytime goal from Matthews. He finally came alive in Toronto’s last game against Boston with a pair of goals and a 91% expected-goals-for rating, according to Natural Stat Trick. I think he builds off that momentum and nets one tonight. Plus, his 23 goals and 44 points in 30 career games vs Ottawa should give him confidence heading into the matchup.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Maple Leafs vs Senators moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs are favored on the money line at -135 odds, with Ottawa coming in as +110 home underdogs. Ottawa won the meeting earlier this season, but Toronto has played better of late and cashed in on the moneyline in six of the previous seven meetings against the Sens. The public seems to like Toronto tonight as well, with them claiming 65% of the total wagers and 62% of the total handle. 

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals. The Over is favored at -140 odds, with the Under paying +115. Both teams can score, ranking in the top half of the league in goals per game, while also having issues defensively with both sides missing key blue liners. I’d lean toward the Over tonight. 

Maple Leafs vs Senators betting trend to know

The Over is 7-3 in the Maple Leafs' last 10 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

Maple Leafs vs Senators game info

Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
Date: Thursday, December 7, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN4

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