The Las Vegas Raiders welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Allegiant Stadium in Week 14 odds. Both teams are coming off a bye and are still in playoff contention despite a season-ending injury to Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins and Vegas benching QB Jimmy Garoppolo for fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell.
NFL odds opened with the Vikes as 2.5-point road favorites for this showdown before ticking up to the key number of -3.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Vikings vs. Raiders on December 10.
Vikings vs Raiders odds
Vikings vs Raiders predictions
Dobbs stepped in for Arizona when Kyler Murray was injured earlier this year. While he initially helped the team exceed expectations for the first three weeks of the season, he later struggled, and the Cardinals lost their next five games before eventually trading him to Minnesota.
Despite mediocre passing numbers, Dobbs helped the Vikings go 2-1 in his first three weeks as their starter, but the wheels fell off last week as he threw for just 185 yards with four picks against a Bottom-5 Bears pass defense. While Dobbs is mobile and can pick up a playbook quickly, he also has poor zip on his throws along with shaky accuracy.
Under Dobbs at quarterback and facing inconsistencies in the ground game, Minnesota's offense has a limited upside, even with the return of All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson after a two-month absence.
Although the Las Vegas Raiders offense is operating on a similar level, Aidan O'Connell has been showing improvement as a passer. It helps that O'Connell has an All-Pro wideout of his own in Davante Adams at his disposal, as well as a running back in Josh Jacobs, who is hitting his stride after a slow start to this year.
The Raiders have a subpar defense and are 19th in the league in defensive EPA but the Vikings might not be much better despite sitting eighth. Minnesota's defensive numbers might be a bit overrated after playing some anemic attacks, and top-to-bottom, their stop unit isn't that impressive.
Danielle Hunter is an elite pass rusher and Harrison Phillips is stout against the run but there are plenty of holes behind them. Considering the injury to Jordan Hicks, the Vikes are especially weak at linebacker, and they have a poor crop of corners that won't be able to cover Adams out wide.
With the Vikings installed as 3-point road favorites in this spot, that means that they're being viewed as 4.5-point favorites on a neutral site. Frankly, I don't see that, especially with Dobbs at the helm and an overrated defense to boot.
Take the Raiders and the points.
My best bet: Raiders +3 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Vikings vs Raiders same-game parlay
While bet365 only uses half-point spreads in SGP plays, that allows us to take the Raiders at more than a field goal.
Adams has racked up at least 73 receiving yards in his last three games and he should thrive against Minnesota's corners. Akayleb Evans and Byron Murphy Jr. are expected to start on the outside and Evans has a coverage grade of just 55.8 per Pro Football Focus, while Murphy isn't much better with a grade of 60.0.
Meanwhile, middle linebacker Robert Spillane has logged at least eight tackles in five of his last six games. He has racked up double-digits in tackles in his last two contests and should get plenty of tackling opportunities against a Vikings team that has been running the ball a lot more with Dobbs under center.
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Vikings vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
The line opened with the Vikings at -2.5 and the total at 40.5. Early money came in on the Vikes, shifting the spread to the key number of -3, while the O/U has stayed steady.
The Vikings are coming off a 12-10 loss as 3-point road favorites against the Bears. That snapped a streak of six straight games where Minnesota covered the spread. The Vikes have struggled with turnovers all year and Dobbs has turned the ball over six times in the last two games — with Minnesota losing both of those contests.
The Raiders are fresh off a bye after a disappointing 31-17 loss to the Chiefs. They are 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in their last eight games. They have also been an Under machine with eight of their previous 10 contests going below the total.
Vikings vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Raiders.
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Vikings vs Raiders game info
|Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
|Sunday, December 10, 2023
|4:05 p.m. ET
|Raiders +2.5, 40.5
Vikings vs Raiders latest injuries
Vikings vs Raiders weather
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