Vikings vs Raiders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 14: Back Las Vegas as Home Dogs

Despite Las Vegas' rocky 2023 campaign, it's been a similar story for Minnesota with Josh Dobbs under center. Find out why Rohit Ponnaiya likes the Silver and Black in Week 14 by reading our Vikings vs. Raiders betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 10, 2023 • 08:13 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Las Vegas Raiders welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Allegiant Stadium in Week 14 odds. Both teams are coming off a bye and are still in playoff contention despite a season-ending injury to Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins and Vegas benching QB Jimmy Garoppolo for fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell. 

NFL odds opened with the Vikes as 2.5-point road favorites for this showdown before ticking up to the key number of -3.

Here are my best free NFL picks for Vikings vs. Raiders on December 10.

Vikings vs Raiders odds

Vikings vs Raiders predictions

The honeymoon might once again be over for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs.

Dobbs stepped in for Arizona when Kyler Murray was injured earlier this year. While he initially helped the team exceed expectations for the first three weeks of the season, he later struggled, and the Cardinals lost their next five games before eventually trading him to Minnesota.

Despite mediocre passing numbers, Dobbs helped the Vikings go 2-1 in his first three weeks as their starter, but the wheels fell off last week as he threw for just 185 yards with four picks against a Bottom-5 Bears pass defense. While Dobbs is mobile and can pick up a playbook quickly, he also has poor zip on his throws along with shaky accuracy. 

Under Dobbs at quarterback and facing inconsistencies in the ground game, Minnesota's offense has a limited upside, even with the return of All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson after a two-month absence.

Although the Las Vegas Raiders offense is operating on a similar level, Aidan O'Connell has been showing improvement as a passer. It helps that O'Connell has an All-Pro wideout of his own in Davante Adams at his disposal, as well as a running back in Josh Jacobs, who is hitting his stride after a slow start to this year. 

The Raiders have a subpar defense and are 19th in the league in defensive EPA but the Vikings might not be much better despite sitting eighth. Minnesota's defensive numbers might be a bit overrated after playing some anemic attacks, and top-to-bottom, their stop unit isn't that impressive.

Danielle Hunter is an elite pass rusher and Harrison Phillips is stout against the run but there are plenty of holes behind them. Considering the injury to Jordan Hicks, the Vikes are especially weak at linebacker, and they have a poor crop of corners that won't be able to cover Adams out wide. 

With the Vikings installed as 3-point road favorites in this spot, that means that they're being viewed as 4.5-point favorites on a neutral site. Frankly, I don't see that, especially with Dobbs at the helm and an overrated defense to boot.

Take the Raiders and the points.

My best bet: Raiders +3 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Vikings vs Raiders same-game parlay

Raiders +3.5

Davante Adams Over 71.5 receiving yards

Robert Spillane 8+ total tackles

While bet365 only uses half-point spreads in SGP plays, that allows us to take the Raiders at more than a field goal.

Adams has racked up at least 73 receiving yards in his last three games and he should thrive against Minnesota's corners. Akayleb Evans and Byron Murphy Jr. are expected to start on the outside and Evans has a coverage grade of just 55.8 per Pro Football Focus, while Murphy isn't much better with a grade of 60.0. 

Meanwhile, middle linebacker Robert Spillane has logged at least eight tackles in five of his last six games. He has racked up double-digits in tackles in his last two contests and should get plenty of tackling opportunities against a Vikings team that has been running the ball a lot more with Dobbs under center.

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Vikings vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened with the Vikings at -2.5 and the total at 40.5. Early money came in on the Vikes, shifting the spread to the key number of -3, while the O/U has stayed steady.

The Vikings are coming off a 12-10 loss as 3-point road favorites against the Bears. That snapped a streak of six straight games where Minnesota covered the spread. The Vikes have struggled with turnovers all year and Dobbs has turned the ball over six times in the last two games — with Minnesota losing both of those contests. 

The Raiders are fresh off a bye after a disappointing 31-17 loss to the Chiefs. They are 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in their last eight games. They have also been an Under machine with eight of their previous 10 contests going below the total. 

Vikings vs Raiders betting trend to know

The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Raiders.

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Vikings vs Raiders game info

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Sunday, December 10, 2023
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Opening odds: Raiders +2.5, 40.5

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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