Week 7 is here, and our Patriots vs. Bears expert picks for Thursday Night Football can help you prepare your NFL picks for Thursday, Oct. 22.
Both offenses could be busy in this prime-time matchup. Our NFL analysts are targeting the passing game, player props, and the total as New England visits Chicago at Soldier Field.
For more matchup analysis, check out our Patriots vs. Bears prediction, our latest NFL Week 7 odds, and our NFL Week 7 picks against the spread.
Patriots vs. Bears expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards |
51% |
 Josh Inglis: D'Andre Swift 3+ receptions |
55% |
 Joe Osborne: Over 50.5 points |
53% |
 Jon Metler: Chicago Bears moneyline |
59% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan's expert pick: A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards
We're buying back A.J. Brown after a less-than-stellar return in Week 6.
Brown was targeted 10 times but had three drops, finishing with three receptions for 27 yards. With the rust off, Brown remains the New England Patriots' No. 1 receiver, especially with Romeo Doubs sidelined by injury. Brown faces a Chicago Bears defense that frequently uses man coverage.
Brown is one of the NFL's elite receivers in one-on-one situations, and his projections sit above 70 yards, with a ceiling near 90.
For what it's worth, Brown burned Chicago for 132 yards and two touchdowns as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles last season.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: D'Andre Swift 3+ receptions
The Bears ran 72 plays last week, lead the NFL in plays per game, and posted a season-high +6% pass rate over expectation (PROE), with Caleb Williams back under center and scrambling less frequently.
Chicago's running game has struggled, but involving D'Andre Swift as a pass-catcher appears to be a priority for head coach Ben Johnson. Swift has drawn 10 targets over the past two weeks and ran a route on 46% of dropbacks last week, according to the supplied analysis.
The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most adjusted receiving yards to running backs, per THE BLITZ. I'm targeting receptions rather than receiving yards and have this selection priced at 55%.
For more matchup context, see our Patriots vs. Bears predictions.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 50.5 points
Chicago has scored 59 and 31 points in its two full games with Williams, while New England has averaged 33.3 points over its last three games, according to the supplied analysis.
Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes against one interception during that stretch. He now faces a Bears defense that has struggled to limit opposing offenses.
Expect both teams to trade scoring drives. Chicago can answer New England's offense against a Patriots defense that surrendered 35 points at Jacksonville and 26 at Buffalo in the games cited in the original analysis.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Bears moneyline
Give me the Bears on the moneyline at 59%. I make Chicago a 62% favorite in Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots' offensive line has been dealing with multiple injuries, with several players listed as questionable for this matchup. Playing on the road on a short week makes it more difficult to address communication issues and adjust pass protection.
I expect defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to exploit those weaknesses with creative pass-rush schemes and coverage disguises, helping compensate for Chicago's secondary against Maye.
For more matchup context, see our Patriots vs. Bears predictions.
How to watch Patriots vs. Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Check the latest Patriots vs. Bears odds and matchup information before trading, as lines and market probabilities can change.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in Massachusetts.
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