The Milwaukee Brewers posted a 24-8 record in Jacob Misiorowski starts this season, and are predictably favored (60%) at home with him slated to take the mound in Game 1.
My Rays vs. Brewers prediction and MLB picks expect he'll get enough run support to win, and Jackson Chourio is likely to provide the offense on Oct. 22.
Rays vs Brewers prediction: Brewers moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener up to 63%.
The Tampa Bay Rays simply weren't the same team on the road during the regular season, posting a 43-38 record — a far cry from their 55-26 mark at home.
Their road numbers leave a lot to be desired in the playoffs, too. The sample is much smaller, of course, but they have managed just a .228 xwOBA vs. righties.
That’s not ideal heading into a matchup with the electric Jacob Misiorowski, who has allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of 18 home starts this season.
Who will win Rays vs Brewers?
Brewers: The Brewers led the league in scoring at home this season. It'll be tough for the Rays to keep up against Jacob Misiorowski and his 99th percentile ranking in xBA and xERA.
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TOP PICK
Rays vs Brewers player prop: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
There’s hot, and there’s Chourio at home. He has cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI in 15 of his last 17 games in Milwaukee, averaging 3.7 H+R+RBI during that stretch.
While Drew Rasmussen is a tough egg to crack, Chourio can get to him.
Rasmussen finished in the 91st percentile in BA against right-handed hitters this year but sits in the 64th percentile over the last six starts.
Chourio consistently hits the ball hard, and his .291 xBA vs. righties in the playoffs suggests results will follow.
COVERS INTEL: Chourio ranks in the 86th percentile in Batting Run Value and 88th percentile in Sprint Speed, making him a threat not only with the bat in his hands but on the basepaths..Rays vs Brewers combo
I’m combining the Brewers on the moneyline with Jackson Chourio and Junior Caminero to record hits.
I’ve isolated these stars partly because they can hit pitchers of both handedness effectively. Some players will be schemed out of the game, so to speak, with certain bullpen moves. That's not a concern for either of them.
It helps that Chourio owns a .314 xBA in the playoffs, and Caminero has posted a 15% barrel rate in the postseason to date. I want to follow the hard contact.
Rays vs Brewers combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 hits
- Junior Caminero Over 0.5 hits
- Top picks: 129-106, -2.45 units
- O/U picks: 121-106-6, +0.35 units
Rays vs Brewers weather
This game will be played indoors.
Rays vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Rays 40% | Brewers 60%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 (63%) | Brewers -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (47%) | Under 6.5 (54%)
Rays vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee posted a league-best 45-30 record against teams over .500 during the regular season. MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Brewers.
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How to watch Rays vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field |
| Date | Friday, October 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Rays vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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