For the first time in over a decade, Texas and Ole Miss meet on Saturday at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Longhorns are 3.5-point home favorites, and despite back-to-back losses, my Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction and college football picks project Arch Manning to pull off a win against his namesake's alma mater.
TOP PICK
Who will win Ole Miss vs Texas: Texas -3.5
Archie Manning never played against Texas, but Arch Manning has the chance to lead the Longhorns to their first win against his grandfather and uncle's alma mater since 2012. It's a good time to buy low on a Texas team I would take to cover up to -5.5 at home against Ole Miss.
While the Longhorns have lost two straight, they still have the clear defensive advantage, even with Colin Simmons unlikely to play. The Texas defense ranks sixth nationally in available yards percentage (31.2%) and 14th in havoc rate (20%).
Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense struggled in ranked matchups away from home, allowing 90 points across two games.
It's a big ask for Trinidad Chambliss to make up for his own defense again against one of the top defenses in the country. Chambliss is coming off arguably his worst game of the season, too (80.4 QBR, 65.7% adjusted completion percentage vs. Missouri).
COVERS INTEL: The Texas defense has allowed just four TD passes this season and ranks No. 3 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play. It's arguably the best defense Chambliss has faced.
Ole Miss vs Texas Over/Under pick: Over 53.5
While Texas' defensive advantage should make the difference in a Longhorns win, I'm expecting enough points to be scored for the Over to hit at 54.5 or better.
The Ole Miss defense ranks 65th nationally in success rate (43.5%) and 89th in net EPA per drive, while allowing the most yards per game in the SEC (390). It's been at its worst away from home, allowing 35.6 points per game outside Oxford, helping the Over in all three of those games.
But the Rebels have arguably the best QB in the country in Chambliss, who ranks top 20 in QBR (83.4) and TD passes (14). He and Kewan Lacy should move Ole Miss' offense with enough consistency for the Over to hit. I like Texas to win 31-24.
Ole Miss vs Texas prop: Texas TT Over 27.5
While Pete Golding is a defensive coach, his team's defense has been sporadic at best this season. In four games against ranked opponents, Ole Miss is allowing 29.2 points per game, which is why I like Texas' team total Over at 28.5 or better.
Ole Miss' defense ranks outside the top 75 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and early-down EPA per play. It's really struggled away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, allowing 38+ points and over 460 yards in two of its three games away from home.
The biggest issue for Ole Miss is stopping the run. The Rebels have allowed the most rushing yards per game in the SEC (153.5). That should help Steve Sarkisian take pressure off Manning by leaning on his running backs.
Ole Miss vs Texas combo
This is the No. 2 must-watch game in my Top 25 predictions for Week 8, with Manning and Sarkisian looking for redemption and needing to cool down their seats.
While Chambliss is my midseason first-team All-American QB, Ole Miss can't keep getting away with relying on him to carry it to wins... allowing 29.2 points per game against ranked teams will catch up to the Rebels.
Without Simmons, this Texas defense will take a step back, but not a big enough step for Ole Miss to light it up and make up for its own defensive woes. Games away from home have been unkind to the Rebels, especially their defense, and I think Maning, Sarkisian, and the Longhorns offense will rise to the occasion to take advantage.
Ole Miss vs Texas combo
- Texas -3.5
- Over 53.5
- Top picks: 15-11, +2.41 units
- Combos: 7-19, +1.47 units
Ole Miss vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 | Texas -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (51%) | Under 53.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Ole Miss 42% | Texas 58%
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Ole Miss vs Texas weather
Weather isn't expected to have any impact on the game in Austin on Saturday night.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ole Miss vs Texas trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Ole Miss' last six games as a road underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Ole Miss vs. Texas.
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How to watch Ole Miss vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Ole Miss vs Texas latest injuries
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