Our Patriots vs. Bears computer picks are leaning into a potential prime-time clash, with Drake Maye and Caleb Williams leading eight player props at Soldier Field.
The Patriots won the teams' last meeting 19-3, and tonight's matchup features an over/under set at 50.5 points. Below, we break down the Covers prop projections and Kalshi probabilities ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
Find more of our favorite NFL picks for the slate.
Patriots vs Bears computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Patriots |
 Bears |
|---|---|
| Maye o20.5 passing completions 47% |
Williams o32.5 passing attempts 49% |
| Henry o30.5 receiving yards 42% |
Swift o14.5 receiving yards 64% |
| Brown o2.5 receptions made 45% |
Burden o4.5 receptions made 55% |
| Stevenson anytime TD 47% |
Loveland anytime TD 34% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Patriots computer picks
Drake Maye Over 20.5 passing completions (47%)
Projection: 20.84 passing completions
A throwing game script is heavily implied by the New England Patriots being a +3 point underdog in this game, setting Drake Maye up to easily clear 20.5 passing completions.
Backing that volume up, the Patriots' offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year, giving Maye the clean pockets and time needed to pick apart opposing coverages all night long.
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Hunter Henry Over 30.5 receiving yards (42%)
Projection: 34.71 receiving yards
Hunter Henry grades out as one of the best tight end receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile—making his 30.5 receiving yards line a target he is primed to clear.
Furthermore, Henry's receiving reliability has jumped significantly this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate surging from 73.2% to 87.2% to ensure he routinely secures the catches needed to sail past this number.
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A.J. Brown Over 2.5 receptions made (45%)
Projection: 5.17 receptions
A.J. Brown remains one of the premier pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL, averaging a elite 4.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile—making his Over 2.5 receptions line a incredibly low bar to clear tonight against the Chicago Bears.
Boosted by a Patriots offensive line that profiles as the 2nd-best unit in the league in pass protection, Brown should benefit from clean pockets and ample target volume to easily shatter this mark.
Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown (47%)
Projection: 0.32 touchdown
Rhamondre Stevenson presents prime touchdown value against the Bears' defense, which has leaked a monstrous 0.17 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs—the 10th-highest rate in the league.
With New England leaning heavily on its backfield in high-leverage and goal-line situations, Stevenson’s dual-threat workload makes him a strong bet to find paydirt tonight.
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Bears computer picks
Caleb Williams Over 32.5 passing attempts (49%)
Projection: 32.61 passing attempts
The Bears enter tonight running the highest number of plays in the NFL at a colossal 67.2 per game, and leading projections forecast them to maintain that furious pace with 66.5 plays on the slate.
Given Chicago's high-tempo offense and underlying game dynamics, Caleb Williams will have ample volume and opportunities to air it out and comfortably sail past his 32.5 passing attempts line tonight against the Patriots.
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D'Andre Swift Over 14.5 receiving yards (64%)
Projection: 18.54 yards
This week, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 81st percentile among RBs with 3.3 targets.
Swift's 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a notable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 13.0 mark.
The Patriots defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) vs. RBs this year.
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Luther Burden III Over 4.5 receptions made (55%)
Projection: 4.61 receptions made
The Bears run the highest number of plays in the NFL this season (a colossal 67.2 per game on average), giving Luther Burden III ample targets and total volume to easily sail past his Over 4.5 receptions line tonight against the Patriots.
Capitalizing on that high-tempo pace, Burden faces a porous New England pass defense that has been torched for a massive 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers—the 8th-worst mark in the league—setting up the dynamic wideout for a busy and efficient prime-time outing.
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Colston Loveland anytime touchdown (34%)
Projection: 0.37 touchdown
The Bears lead the NFL in total offensive snaps, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game, and projections expect another high-volume effort with 66.5 plays forecasted tonight.
That relentless pace creates maximum scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line, positioning Colston Loveland—who commands a heavy slice of Chicago's red-zone target share—as a prime candidate to find paydirt and deliver anytime touchdown value against the Patriots.
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