Prime time football blows into the Windy City in Week 7.
The Chicago Bears battle the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
My Patriots vs Bears prop picks dig into the individual efforts, measuring mismatches, models and the prediction markets for my best NFL picks on Oct. 22.
Best Patriots vs Bears props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards |
50% |
 D’Andre Swift 3+ receptions |
54% |
| Caleb Williams 1+ touchdown |
21% |
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Prop pick #1: A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards
It’s safe to say A.J. Brown’s return on investment hasn’t been great for the New England Patriots so far.
The Pats’ big-name acquisition was injured in Week 1 and had an ugly return to action in Week 6, catching only three of 10 balls his way for 27 yards – three of which were drops from the veteran WR.
Both Brown and his QB Drake Maye said all the right things after that sloppy showing, and with that rust shaken off, New England will continue to trust its WR1.
That’s especially true considering leading receiver Romeo Doubs was put on IR with a shoulder injury this week.
Brown had success against this Chicago Bears defense last season, when he was with Philadelphia. He snatched 10 receptions for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 13.
Brown does his best work against man coverage, ranking among the top WRs vs. man at PFF over the previous four seasons, and faces a Chicago secondary (that’s missing bodies) utilizing man at the second-highest frequency in 2026.
Brown’s projections for Thursday sit between 70 and 88 yards. My number coming out at 78 yards receiving, respecting the higher ceiling considering the matchup and pass-positive game script for New England.
Prop pick #2: D'Andre Swift 3+ receptions
The Bears’ rushing attack is missing Kyle Monangai as much as I miss flip-flop weather. Chicago has mustered only 3.0 and 3.6 yards per carry without him the past two games.
Monangai is dealing with a thumb injury as well as turf toe and it doesn’t look like he’ll be back on the short week after sitting out walkthroughs.
With D’Andre Swift unable to gain traction on the ground, Ben Johnson is finding other ways to get the ball in the running back’s hands.
Swift has been targeted 10 total times the past two games, bringing in eight catches for 56 yards receiving. His Week 7 models lean toward three grabs, with a high of 2.8 receptions forecasted.
New England has shown a soft spot to pass-catching RBs this season, allowing the fifth most receiving yards to the position and ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs at FTN.
Prop pick #3: Caleb Williams 1+ touchdown
Caleb Williams looked good in his return from a hamstring injury last week.
The Bears QB passed 36 times versus Atlanta but was less inclined to take off running, as he had done in the opening two weeks of the schedule.
With more downtime to strengthen that hammy, Williams’ rushing projections are very positive as models flirt with 30 yards rushing in Week 7.
He had solid production with his legs versus the blitz-heavy schemes of Carolina and Minnesota (until getting injured) and takes on a Patriots defense bringing extra rushers at the ninth-highest rate.
I like Williams to go for 20+ rushing yards on TNF (51%), and there’s value in buying his touchdown prop too.
New England also has a very stingy red zone defense that has tightened the bolts in recent weeks, allowing a measly 40% touchdown rate to opponents the past three games. That leaves Williams to come up empty on progressions and opting to run it in himself.
Williams rushed for two touchdowns in the Week 1 win versus the Panthers and has six red zone runs in his two and half outings this season. His touchdown probabilities sit as high as 31% for Thursday.
- Prop picks: 25-11, +13.14 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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