After a rough 5–10 showing last week, I owe you an honest bounce-back.
Week 12 is loaded with tight lines, live dogs, and a few standout edges, and I’ve broken down my best Week 12 NFL picks against the spread for every matchup on the board.
Let’s shake off last week and attack this slate.
Week 12 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bills vs  Texans |
(-5.5) |
 Vikings vs  Packers |
(+6.5) |
 Colts vs  Chiefs |
(+3.5) |
 Patriots vs  Bengals |
(-7.5) |
 Steelers vs  Bears |
(-3) |
 Jets vs  Ravens |
(-13.5) |
 Giants vs  Lions |
(-10.5) |
 Seahawks vs  Titans |
(+13.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Cardinals |
(-2.5) |
 Browns vs  Raiders |
(+3.5) |
 Eagles vs  Cowboys |
(-3.5) |
 Falcons vs  Saints |
(-1.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Rams |
(+6.5) |
 Panthers vs  49ers |
(-6.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-18.
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Expert Week 12 NFL ATS picks
Bills vs. Texans: Bills (-5.5)
The Bills put up 44 points last week, and all seems right in the world. Thankfully for them, the Texans don't have the same offensive explosiveness as the Bucs, so the Bills should be fine.
Vikings vs. Packers: Vikings (+6.5)
I can't get a good read this year on the Packers, but with a new injury concern surrounding Josh Jacobs, the Packers may be in trouble. The Vikings lost a tough one last week, but their defense is still really good. Too many points for a divisional matchup.
Colts vs. Chiefs: Colts (+3.5)
I think the time has finally come to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs. What could possibly go wrong?
Patriots vs. Bengals: Patriots (-7.5)
The Bengals are not a very good team to begin with, and now, with Ja'Marr Chase suspended, they're even worse. The Patriots' offense can run up the score enough here to cover this spread.
Steelers vs. Bears: Bears (-3)
This is the "Fraud Bowl" of the week, with two teams I have no faith in. What I do trust, though, is Chicago's offense making more explosive plays and riding its luck of winning one-score ball games.
Jets vs. Ravens: Ravens (-13.5)
I'm not betting on the Jets, and neither should you.
Giants vs. Lions: Lions (-10.5)
I'll let my colleague Joe Osborne explain this one:
With the Lions losing to the Eagles on SNF, the best betting trend in the NFL is now live:
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 17, 2025
Detroit is 13-0 ATS after an outright loss.
They’re 3-0 in that spot this season, winning by 31, 15, and 22.
They’re -11.5 vs the Giants on Sunday.
Seahawks vs. Titans: Titans (+13.5)
I think the clock finally struck midnight for Sam Darnold last week, and he went from MVP candidate to pumpkin. Coming off a tough division loss, I see a letdown here for the Seahawks, so plug your nose and take the points with the Titans.
Jaguars vs. Cardinals: Jaguars (-2.5)
Jacoby Brissett set the NFL record for most completions in a game with 47. The Cardinals lost 41-22.
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Browns vs. Raiders: Browns (+3.5)
Cleveland’s defense is still the best unit in this matchup, and getting over a field goal against a shaky Raiders offense is too good to pass up. As long as the Browns avoid turnovers, they should stay inside this number.
Eagles vs. Cowboys: Eagles (-3.5)
Beating up on the lowly Raiders doesn't make the Cowboys a good team. They'll be exposed defensively in this spot vs. a good Eagles side. Not to mention, the Eagles' defense is flying high right now, holding two great offenses to under 10 points in back-to-back weeks.
Falcons vs. Saints: Saints (-1.5)
I told myself I'd never bet on Kirk Cousins again, so I'm not going back on my word. Without Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, this Falcons side is bad. Not to mention, they've dropped five straight games. Plug your nose and take the Saints.
Buccaneers vs. Rams: Buccaneers (+6.5)
The Los Angeles Rams picked off Sam Darnold four times last week but only won by two points. The Bucs put up 32 on the Bills but lost. I see the offense rolling this week, with the defense stepping up in a big way.
Panthers vs. 49ers: 49ers (-6.5)
It's one thing to back the Panthers as home underdogs, but on the road... I don't see it. The 49ers are in a battle for first place in the NFC West and can ill afford to lose. I say they win by 10+.
My NFL ATS record is 82-82 this season for -5.8 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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