Fresh off a 44-point performance, the Buffalo Bills are favored by six points against the Houston Texans on TNF, while the game has a total of 43.5.
While a good case can be made for either side covering the spread, my Bills vs Texans predictions envision a lower-scoring game.
Here’s my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on November 20.
Bills vs Texans prediction
Bills vs Texans Best bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
We’ve got a great case for an Under bet on Thursday Night with the Houston Texans defense and offense showing quite a bit of contrast from each other.
It’s undeniable that Houston has one of the league’s top defenses. It's allowing a league-low 16.3 points per game, while ranking second in yards allowed per play, and third in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
But the Texans take a serious nose-dive offensively, which has resulted in their games having an average combined score of just 38.3, and five of their 10 games have stayed below 34 combined points.
While the Buffalo Bills defense could scare some off from an Under bet after allowing 62 points in their last two games, this is a solid get-right spot against one of the league’s worst offenses, which will be led by Davis Mills with CJ Stroud still recovering from a concussion.
Houston’s offensive ineptitude was on full display against the Titans last week, where it scored just 16 total points off 4.6 yards per play.
That’s problematic considering the Titans have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Texans' offensive line was an issue, allowing Mills to get sacked four times. The Bills defense can exploit this weakness, as they’ve done a good job of getting after opposing QBs, ranking fourth in QB pressure percentage.
For what it’s worth, Houston held the Bills to 20 points off 276 total yards in a game last season. Josh Allen was straight-up awful in the game, completing just 9 of 30 passes, leading to a QB rating of 56.4, which was his worst mark of the season.
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Bills vs Texans TNF same-game parlay
Thursday night sets up to be a breakout game for Texans running back Woody Marks. The rookie out of USC is coming off a game where he had a season-high 18 carries. A similar workload could lead to a massive day as the Bills rank 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt and have allowed 15 touchdowns to the running back position, which ties them with the Bengals for the most allowed.
Bills vs Texans SGP
- Woody Marks to score a TD
- Woody Marks Over 62.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Woody Marks the Spot
While defending the run is the weakness of the Bills defense, they’ve been elite at limiting opposing tight ends, as they’ve allowed the fewest yards to the position this season – an average of just 27 yards per game. Dalton Schultz has put together a string of decent weeks, but he has gone Under this mark of 38.5 in half of his games this season.
Bills vs Texans SGP
- Woody Marks to score a TD
- Woody Marks Over 62.5 rushing yards
- Dalton Schultz Under 38.5 receiving yards
Bills vs Texans odds
- Spread: Buffalo -6 | Houston +6
- Moneyline: Buffalo -280 | Houston +230
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Bills vs Texans betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Texans.
How to watch Bills vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, November 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
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