As if a run of five straight losses wasn’t bad enough, the Atlanta Falcons have no choice but to turn back to Kirk Cousins for Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints.
With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season and Drake London sidelined, Atlanta enters with a shortage of firepower, and my Falcons vs. Saints predictions instead see the New Orleans passing attack grabbing the headlines.
These NFC South rivals are both in the mix for a tasty pick in next year’s draft, and my NFL picks dig into this November 23 battle.
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Falcons vs Saints prediction
Falcons vs Saints Best bet: Chris Olave Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
There are signs of life in the New Orleans Saints' passing game, and that’s got to be music to Chris Olave’s ears. He’s coming off his best stat line of the season, finishing with five grabs for 104 yards against the Panthers in Week 10, including a 62-yard touchdown.
I’m expecting more of the same from Olave in Week 12, especially after Bryce Young recently torched the Atlanta Falcons for 448 passing yards and three TDs.
Tyler Shough is still figuring out life in the NFL, but he’s building chemistry with Olave, and that connection could be the difference. Shough targeted his No.1 receiver eight times in Carolina, and there’s a path to similar volume on Sunday.
Perhaps most of all, this prop pick reflects the nature of the Saints’ receiver room after trading Rashid Shaheed and releasing Brandin Cooks. Surrounded by inexperienced pass-catchers, Olave can take center stage. He’s logged a catch of 25+ yards in five straight games, and he’s hauled in a reception of 50+ yards in three of those contests.
That big-play threat positions Olave to cash the Over in a hurry, and he totaled eight catches for 87 yards last year against Atlanta. Buckle up for a repeat effort.
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Falcons vs Saints same-game parlay
The Saints have covered the spread in three straight matchups against the Falcons, and they’re coming off a bye week — a stark contrast to Atlanta’s key absences.
It’s a first home start for Shough, and there should be good energy at the Caesars Superdome as New Orleans tries to push Atlanta’s slide to six straight losses.
The good news for the visitors is that they still have Bijan Robinson, who’s amassed six touchdowns this season. His ability to make defenders miss becomes even more important without Michael Penix Jr.’s mobility and Drake London’s route running, and he’s the obvious choice for Atlanta in key scoring spots.
Falcons vs Saints SGP
- Chris Olave Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Saints -1.5
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Instant Kamara
Alvin Kamara’s pass-catching out of the backfield is a huge plus for the Saints as Shough settles in under center, and the running back racked up three receptions for 32 yards last time out.
He's cleared this modest number in four of his past six contests, and Kamara posted 40+ receiving yards in both matchups against Atlanta in 2024.
Falcons vs Saints SGP
- Chris Olave Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Saints -1.5
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
- Alvin Kamara Over 13.5 receiving yards
Falcons vs Saints odds
- Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-120) | Saints +2.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Falcons -155 | Saints +130
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Falcons vs Saints trend to know
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams at Caesars Superdome. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Saints.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Sunday, November 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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