The Detroit Lions welcome the 2-9 New York Giants to Ford Field on Sunday afternoon.
Detroit is coming off a 16-9 loss in Philadelphia, and my Giants vs. Lions predictions are betting on another low-scoring game.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 12 showdown on November 23.
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Giants vs Lions prediction
Giants vs Lions Best bet: Under 49.5 (-105)
The Detroit Lions' offensive line was crucial to their success over the last few years, but it took a significant step back with the surprise retirement of Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow in the offseason.
Left guard Christian Mahogany was placed on the IR two weeks ago, and all four remaining starters are questionable this week. Detroit is 28th in the league in pressure rate allowed, which is bad news with the immobile Jared Goff under center.
The New York Giants are a bad team, but their defense's strength lies in collapsing the pocket with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Abdul Carter.
With tight end Sam LaPorta sidelined by a season-ending injury and that banged-up offensive line, I don't see Detroit hanging many points on the board.
That said, expect New York's offense to look even worse with Jaxson Dart in concussion protocol and Jameis Winston at quarterback for the second-straight week.
This inept offense was already missing No. 1 wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Cam Skattebo. The Giants don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.
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Giants vs Lions same-game parlay
Another reason I like the Under to cash is because I expect the Lions to lean on their running back duo against a Giants defense that is last in the league in EPA against the run.
In Detroit's four losses, David Montgomery has rushed for just 29 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. In the Lions' six wins, he's rushed for 62.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry.
The Lions are expected to win, so Montgomery should rumble against a Giants D that surrenders 149.9 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush attempt.
With Goff feeling the heat in the pocket and his starting tight end done for the year, expect him to rely on Jahmyr Gibbs as an outlet receiver. The Pro Bowl RB is coming off a game against the Eagles, where he reeled in five of eight targets for 107 yards.
Giants vs Lions SGP
- Under 49.5
- David Montgomery Over 52.5 rushing yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 27.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Gibby!
Gibbs is a touchdown machine and has scored a touchdown in Detroit's last nine wins, going back to last season.
While I'm reluctant to lay 12.5 points on the Lions, they should lead at the half.
Giants vs Lions SGP
- Under 49.5
- David Montgomery Over 52.5 rushing yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 27.5 receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- Detroit Lions 1H moneyline
Giants vs Lions Odds
- Spread: Giants +12.5 (-105) | Lions -12.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Giants +640 | Lions -950
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)
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Giants vs Lions trend to know
The Giants have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Lions.
How to watch Giants vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, IL |
| Date | Sunday, November 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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