The Indianapolis Colts face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon.
Indy is 8-2 thanks to a highly-efficient attack, and my Colts vs. Chiefs predictions are betting on that offense to hang points on the board at Arrowhead Stadium.
Here are my best NFL picks for this clash between Super Bowl contenders on November 23.
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Colts vs Chiefs prediction
Colts vs Chiefs Best bet: Colts team total Over 23.5 (-114)
The Indianapolis Colts have the highest-rated offense in the league in both EPA/play and DVOA. The Colts lead the league in points per game (32.1) and yards per play (6.4), while ranking third in red-zone touchdown percentage (68.2%).
While the Kansas City Chiefs have a strong stop unit, they have a couple of weaknesses that Indy can exploit. They are 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA, which is bad news against Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 1139 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry.
The Chiefs also have a tough time getting stops on third down, ranking 23rd in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6%).
The Colts have scored fewer than 29 points just twice in 10 games this season. In those contests, they still finished with 20 points despite having six turnovers against Pittsburgh and three turnovers versus the Rams.
The Chiefs are tied for 24th in the league in takeaways, and I don't see them forcing the turnovers needed to contain this Colts attack.
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Colts vs Chiefs same-game parlay
The O/U rushing yards for Taylor is sitting at a lofty 90.5, but he has surpassed that number in six of his last nine games. He's also scored a whopping 17 touchdowns over that nine-game stretch.
Taylor is the straw that stirs the drink for this Colts offense, and since we're backing them to put up points, it makes sense to parlay that with a productive game for the superstar RB.
Indy has an explosive offense, but the defense has struggled to contain tight ends, allowing the second-most yards per game (72.6) to the position. Travis Kelce has logged 54+ receiving yards in six-straight games, and last week he reeled in nine receptions for 91 yards against Denver's elite defense.
Colts vs Chiefs SGP
- Colts team total Over 23.5
- Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
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Our big-ticket SGP: Chiefs!
Even if the Colts put up points, that's no guarantee they'll beat the Chiefs in their own backyard.
Kansas City's offense has picked up steam since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and Patrick Mahomes could easily lead his team to a high-scoring win.
Colts vs Chiefs SGP
- Colts team total Over 23.5
- Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
- Chiefs moneyline
Colts vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Colts +3.5 (-118) | Chiefs -3.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Colts +156 | Chiefs -186
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Chiefs trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have gone Over their team total in 11 of their last 13 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Colts vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, November 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Colts vs Chiefs latest injuries
Colts vs Chiefs weather
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