After dominating in Week 8, favorites went just 4-9-1 in Week 10, which was much to the chagrin of sportsbooks.
With the NFL trade deadline now past, it's essential to tread carefully when backing teams that have sold off some of their key players.
I break down my favorite Week 10 NFL picks against the spread below.
Week 10 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Raiders vs  Broncos |
(-9.5) |
 Falcons vs  Colts |
(+6.5) |
 Ravens vs  Vikings |
(-4.5) |
 Patriots vs  Buccaneers |
(-2.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Texans |
(+1.5) |
 Browns vs  Jets |
(+1.5) |
 Saints vs  Panthers |
(+5.5) |
 Giants vs  Bears |
(-3.5) |
 Bills vs  Dolphins |
(-9.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Seahawks |
(-6.5) |
 Rams vs  49ers |
(+3.5) |
 Lions vs  Commanders |
(-8.5) |
 Steelers vs  Chargers |
(-3) |
 Eagles vs  Packers |
(+2.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-4.
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Expert Week 10 NFL ATS picks
Raiders vs Broncos: Broncos (-9.5)
The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-6 on the year, and their decision to go for two in OT last week showed their desperation for a win. They failed, and now they sent their best receiver packing in Jakobi Meyers. The Broncos are 7-2 and coming off a low-scoring win. I expect the offense to up its level and dominate from start to finish.
Falcons vs Colts: 
Falcons (+6.5)
The Indianapolis Colts were exposed last week vs. the Steelers, and I don't believe they're in a position to cover a TD spread vs. a Falcons side that can score points with a healthy Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London in the mix.
Ravens vs Vikings: 
Ravens (-4.5)
I trust Lamar Jackson more than J.J. McCarthy in the "return from injury" bowl. Both guys played well last week, but the Ravens have far more upside.
Patriots vs Buccaneers: 
Buccaneers (-2.5)
The Patriots are one of the biggest surprises this season and, at 7-2, have every right to feel confident heading into this Sunday's clash. However, I'll take the Bucs off a bye. They are rested and playing some great football of late, winning three of four on the road in October.
Jaguars vs Texans: 
Jaguars (+1.5)
The Texans have been the favorite by 1.5 in three straight home games. They're 1-1 in those games and did not score a touchdown in their last outing. I'll take the Jags, who added some receiving help in the form of Jakobi Meyers.
Browns vs Jets: 
Browns (+1.5)
Nobody should be betting on this game. With that said, the Jets are far worse than the Browns, so take the points.
Saints vs Panthers: 
Saints (+5.5)
This is also a game nobody should really be betting on. This is a division game, and the Panthers are not a sudden team you should lay six points with. This game is a field goal game either way.
Giants vs Bears: 
Bears (-3.5)
No Skattebo, no party for the Giants. The Bears find another way to win a football game in miraculous fashion and cover the spread while doing so.
Bills vs Dolphins: 
Bills (-9.5)
If you thought the Dolphins were lifeless on Thursday Night Football vs. the Ravens, you'll feel second-hand embarrassment from the beatdown the Bills are about to dish out.
Cardinals vs Seahawks: 
Seahawks (-6.5)
I don't think the Arizona Cardinals are a very good football team, but I do know the Seahawks are. I'll lay the touchdown here in a game that the Seahawks defense should dominate.
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Rams vs 49ers: 
49ers (+3.5)
Despite all of the injury issues, the 49ers just continue to win ball games. This is a huge matchup in the NFC West, and since we're catching the hook on a field goal, I'll take the home side.
Lions vs Commanders: 
Lions (-8.5)
This line could be -15.5, and I would still take the Lions. Dan Campbell can't be pleased with his team's effort last week, and the Commanders are simply falling apart at the seams.
Steelers vs Chargers: Chargers -3
Both teams enter Sunday Night Football off wins, but I like the Chargers a bit more in this spot. They rate out better on both sides of the ball, and if they can play mistake-free football, they should win by seven points or more.
Eagles vs Packers: 
Eagles (+2.5)
I simply trust the Philadelphia Eagles more than I do the Green Bay Packers.
My NFL ATS record is 69-66 this season for -1.2 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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