The Miami Dolphins are at a crossroads with the Buffalo Bills coming to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 10.
Miami is a big home underdog Sunday and sitting on a 2-7 record. The odds of turning around the 2025 season are about as slim as a snowball’s chance in South Beach, but one of the rare bright spots for the Fins is the play of running back De’Von Achane.
My Bills vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks explain why he’ll get plenty of touches — on the ground and through the air — on Sunday, November 9.
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Bills vs Dolphins prediction
Bills vs Dolphins Best bet: De’Von Achane Over 30.5 receiving yards (-114)
With the spread for this AFC East encounter teetering on 10 points, the Miami Dolphins will have to make the most of their possessions. And with the way the Buffalo Bills can grind out gains on the ground and eat up clock, Miami will likely be passing plenty on Sunday afternoon.
De’Von Achane has proven just as capable a receiver as a ball carrier. He’s drawn the second-highest target share among RBs (22.1%) and is running the fourth-most routes for the position, averaging just shy of 30 yards through the air per game.
He caught six of 10 passes his way for 39 yards receiving in last Thursday’s blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens, and given the state of the Dolphins’ running backs room right now (Ollie Gordon injured and Jaylen Wright benched), Achane will draw a ton of snaps on Sunday.
Achane put up his average production against the Bills back in Week 3, snatching seven of nine balls his way for 29 receiving yards in a 31-21 loss in Orchard Park. That game was tight until midway through the fourth quarter when Buffalo broke away.
Game script for Sunday’s return date in Miami sees the Fins dropping back more frequently, much like they did in the loss to the Ravens on Thursday. Tua Tagovailoa threw a season-high 40 times — 25% of which targeted Achane.
Player projections for Miami’s running back range from 31 receiving yards to a ceiling of 42 yards, with the majority of models above this current Over/Under prop total.
Bills vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Achane has become a big part of the passing game for Miami, drawing the second-highest target share among all running backs.
Josh Allen may not have James Cook to hand off to and may have to beat Miami with his arm.
The Dolphins can stay within striking distance thanks to a tough situational spot and brutal South Beach heat on Sunday.
Bills vs Dolphins SGP
- De’Von Achane Over 30.5 receiving yards
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Dolphins +9.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Kincaid continues hot streak
Dalton Kincaid continues to be a top target, with models calling for 50+ yards.
Bills vs Dolphins SGP
- De’Von Achane Over 30.5 receiving yards
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Dolphins +9.5
- Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 receiving yards
Bills vs Dolphins final score prediction
The Bills are the biggest favorite on the board in Week 10. The road to victory won’t be entirely smooth in South Beach, but Buffalo’s ability to run the ball and control possession should wear down the Dolphins defense. Bills win 23-14.
Bills vs Dolphins odds
- Spread: Bills -9.5 | Dolphins +9.5
- Moneyline: Bills -550 | Dolphins +410
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Dolphins trend to know
The Bills are 2-6 ATS (5-3 SU) when laying more than a touchdown on the road since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Bills vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Sunday, November 9, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Dolphins latest injuries
Bills vs Dolphins weather
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