Thursday Night Football brings an intriguing AFC-NFC matchup as Drake Maye and the New England Patriots visit Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. Our Patriots vs. Bears best bets cover the moneyline, spread, game total, and three player props for Week 7.
The game kicks off Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago and airs on Prime Video. The Bears are 3.5-point favorites, with the total set at 50.5 points.
Thursday Night Football predictions: Patriots vs. Bears
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bears moneyline |
59% |
 Patriots +3.5 |
56% |
| /Over 50.5 |
52% |
| D'Andre Swift 3+ receptions |
54% |
| A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards |
50% |
| Hunter Henry anytime touchdown |
29% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Patriots vs. Bears?
Chicago hosts New England in a matchup featuring two quarterbacks who have been productive recently. The Bears are favored at home, but the Patriots have built momentum with a three-game winning streak.
Our prediction: Bears to win — Yes (59%)
Jon Metler likes Chicago on the moneyline, pricing the Bears closer to 62% favorites.
"New England's offensive line enters this matchup banged up, with multiple players questionable. On a short week and on the road, communication and pass protection adjustments become more difficult. I expect Dennis Allen to exploit those weaknesses with creative pass-rush schemes and coverage disguises."
Read more on our NFL picks page.
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Thursday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Patriots +3.5 — Yes (56%)
Joe Osborne's Patriots vs. Bears prediction is taking the points with New England thanks to Drake Maye's recent improvement in play.
"Their season-long yards-per-play differential is positive, while Chicago’s is negative. Getting more than a field goal with this version of Maye works for me."
Thursday Night Football total prediction
Market lean: Over 50.5 — Yes (52%)
Osborne expects enough scoring to push this game over the total.
"The Chicago Bears have scored 59 and 31 points in Caleb Williams’ two full games, and he looked downright surgical on Sunday in Atlanta, completing an insane 30 of 36 pass attempts. The New England Patriots' offense has been enduring a tale of two halves this season. The unit was awful through its first three games, and it then averaged 33.3 points over its next three. Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns against one interception during the latter stretch. Yes, New England's offensive-line injuries concern me, but the makeshift unit didn't surrender a sack against the Jets. Now Maye gets a Chicago defense tied for last in yards allowed per play."
There is a counterargument: Jason Logan's TNF early leans included Under 50.5.
"Chicago recorded five sacks on Atlanta in Week 6, and its blitz-centric pass rush is drumming up a high rate of pressure and creating opportunities for game-changing plays, like INTs and sacks. The New England offensive line is a mess right now, with multiple starters missing. The short week doesn’t do quarterback Drake Maye any favors in that regard. Maye has cleaned up his mistakes from early in the season but has faced some softer, less dangerous defenses over the past three games."
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Thursday Night Football player props
Receptions prop: D'Andre Swift 3+ receptions — Yes (54%)
Logan sees a path to three catches for D'Andre Swift as Chicago looks for ways to involve its running back in the passing game.
"Swift has been targeted 10 total times in the past two games, bringing in eight catches for 56 yards receiving. His Week 7 models lean toward three grabs, with a high of 2.8 receptions forecasted.
New England has shown a soft spot to pass-catching RBs this season, allowing the fifth most receiving yards to the position and ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs at FTN."
Receiving prop: A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards — Yes (50%)
Logan likes A.J. Brown to bounce back after a disappointing return in Week 6, when he caught just three of 10 targets for 27 yards.
"Brown does his best work against man coverage, ranking among the top WRs vs. man at PFF over the previous four seasons, and faces a Chicago secondary (that’s missing bodies) utilizing man at the second-highest frequency in 2026."
Read Logan's full Patriots vs. Bears props for his matchup analysis and additional angles.
Anytime touchdown prop: Hunter Henry anytime touchdown — Yes (29%)
Kyle LaRusic likes Henry to find the end zone for a third straight game.
"Henry leads the Patriots in targets inside the 20 (five) and 10 (three), and his red-zone role will likely keep growing if recent performances are any indication."
For more scoring angles, read LaRusic's full Patriots vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Patriots vs. Bears live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Patriots vs. Bears unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Patriots vs. Bears prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Patriots beat the Bears?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Patriots vs. Bears position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Patriots vs. Bears at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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