New England @ Buffalo Picks & Props

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the league against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (72.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate. After totaling 44.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 53.0 per game. Hunter Henry's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 98th percentile for TEs.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average). Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs. Dalton Kincaid has notched a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year. Dalton Kincaid's 78.3% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 62.0% rate.

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (11.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). Rhamondre Stevenson has notched significantly more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average). In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year. Khalil Shakir's 90.2% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a material boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 80.5% rate. With an outstanding ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (87th percentile), Khalil Shakir stands as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in the league among WRs this year. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate. While Stefon Diggs has been responsible for 11.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New England's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 19.8%. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average). While James Cook has received 65.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in Buffalo's run game near the end zone this week at 55.4%. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year. James Cook's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 84.6% to 100.0%. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has been torched for a staggering 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average). In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year. Josh Allen's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 71.1%. This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a staggering 1.75 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 8th-largest rate in football. This year, the imposing New England Patriots run defense has yielded a puny 0.50 rushing TDs per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.