My Iowa vs. Minnesota prediction backs the Golden Gophers to keep things close in Saturday afternoon's Big Ten showdown.
Minnesota is a tough place to play, and P.J. Fleck has a knack for getting the most out of his players. With home-field advantage and an Iowa team coming off a difficult stretch of games, this is a strong spot to back Fleck and the Golden Gophers.
Here's why I'm backing Minnesota in my latest college football picks ahead of Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FS1.
TOP PICK
Who will win Iowa vs Minnesota: Minnesota +6.5
Both Iowa and Minnesota enter Week 8 coming off bye weeks. The Hawkeyes are looking to keep their winning ways alive, while the Golden Gophers are searching for their first victory since Oct. 3. I'm leaning toward the team that needs a win more.
For starters, beating Minnesota on its home turf is never easy, especially with Fleck on the sideline. He's an excellent motivator who consistently gets the most out of his players. Since 2020, Minnesota is 28-14 straight up at home and 22-18-2 against the spread.
Even coming off a bye, Iowa could overlook Minnesota after navigating a brutal stretch of its schedule. The Hawkeyes traveled to Michigan, hosted Ohio State, and visited Washington, emerging from those three games with an impressive 2-1 record.
Despite their 5-1 record, the Hawkeyes are laying too many points in this matchup.
I'd prefer Minnesota at +7, but +6.5 is the lowest I'd go.
COVERS INTEL: Despite his strong home record since 2020, P.J. Fleck has struggled against Iowa, beating the Hawkeyes just once in nine meetings. However, Fleck has had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry matchup, and his ability to get his team ready for big games could help Minnesota snap its losing streak against Iowa.
Iowa vs Minnesota Over/Under pick: Under 40.5
This isn't your older brother's Iowa team, the one that played suffocating defense but couldn't score enough points to support it. This year's Hawkeyes are averaging more than 26 points per game while holding opponents to just 17.
However, this matchup has the makings of a classic Big Ten defensive battle, with three-and-outs, plenty of punts, and points at a premium.
Iowa should make life difficult for Minnesota's rushing attack. The Hawkeyes rank fifth nationally in rushing yards per play allowed and ninth in rushing yards per game allowed. When Minnesota's junior quarterback drops back, he'll face a defense ranked sixth in sack percentage.
The Golden Gophers can also get after the quarterback, ranking 15th nationally in sack percentage. Their secondary has been strong, too, allowing fewer than 180 passing yards per game, good for 23rd in the country.
If Minnesota can tighten up its run defense, both offenses could be in for a difficult afternoon.
I wouldn't play this total any lower than 40.5.
Iowa vs Minnesota combo
This matchup has all the makings of a defensive showdown, making Minnesota +6.5, Under 41.5, and the first-half Under 20.5 an appealing combo at 4.43x odds.
The Golden Gophers' slow tempo should help keep the clock moving, while both defenses can make life difficult for opposing offenses. Minnesota should be able to keep this game competitive, with the first half setting the tone for a lower-scoring affair.
Iowa vs Minnesota combo
- Minnesota +6.5
- Under 40.5
- 1H Under 20.5
- 2026 picks: 58-43-5, +15.90 units
Iowa vs Minnesota odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Iowa -6.5 | Minnesota +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (52%) | Under 40.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Iowa 68% | Minnesota 32%
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Iowa vs Minnesota weather
There's a 20% chance of rain during Saturday's matchup, with temperatures otherwise expected to hover in the mid-60s. That's ideal weather for some classic Big Ten football in October.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
Iowa vs Minnesota trend to know
The Under has hit in eight of Minnesota's last nine home games, including each of its last four as a home underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs. Minnesota.
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How to watch Iowa vs Minnesota
| Location | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Iowa vs Minnesota latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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