My Thursday Night Football Patriots vs. Bears prediction backs the Over to kick off tonight’s NFL picks.
The New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Thursday, Oct. 22, at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bears are the 3.5-point favorites, and the 50.5-point total simply isn’t high enough.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Bears prediction: Over 50.5
The Chicago Bears scored 59 points in Week 1 and 31 in Caleb Williams’ return at Atlanta, where he looked downright surgical on Sunday, completing an insane 30 of 36 pass attempts.
The New England Patriots’ offense has been enduring a tale of two halves this season. The unit was awful through its first three games, and it then averaged 33.3 points over its next three. Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns against one interception during the latter stretch.
Yes, New England’s offensive-line injuries concern me, with both starting guards ruled out, but the makeshift unit didn’t surrender a sack against the Jets. Now Maye gets a Chicago defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per play. As Jason Logan points out in his Patriots vs Bears prop picks, Chicago uses man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate, a matchup that should benefit A.J. Brown. Expect the Patriots to land some haymakers.
The Bears can punch back with Williams healthy, another reason he’s included in our Patriots vs. Bears touchdown picks. New England’s defense was already stomped for 35 points at Jacksonville, and it surrendered 26 at Buffalo. Expect a shootout as Maye and Williams battle for bragging rights as the best quarterback from the 2024 draft class.
See where the rest of the Covers staff lands on the spread, total, and player props in our Patriots vs. Bears expert picks.
COVERS INTEL: Look for the Patriots to hit a few home runs against a Bears defense that’s allowed a league-high eight pass plays of 40+ yards.More Patriots vs. Bears Thursday Night Football coverage
- Patriots vs. Bears best bets and expert picks: four plays from the Covers staff
- Patriots vs. Bears prop picks: three TNF props from Jason Logan
- Patriots vs. Bears computer picks and player prop projections: eight TNF props with Kalshi probabilities
- Patriots vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer predictions: Kyle LaRusic’s TD picks and long shots
- Patriots vs. Bears parlays and top combo picks: three TNF combos from Jason Logan
- NFL Week 7 picks against the spread: expert ATS picks for every game, including Patriots vs. Bears
Patriots vs Bears combo
Williams’ return puts some venom back into Chicago’s offense. And on the other side, New England has piled up 100 points during its three-game winning streak. I’m expecting sustained drives and enough end-zone visits to clear 50.5.
Give me the Patriots +3.5 in a competitive game. Their season-long yards-per-play differential is positive, while Chicago’s is negative. Getting more than a field goal with this version of Maye works for me.
Finally, Maye has fired 10 touchdown passes over his last three games. Chicago just allowed three to Michael Penix Jr. after giving up two to Jordan Love the previous week. This Bears secondary is starting to get badly exposed.
Patriots vs Bears combo
- Over 50.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Drake Maye 2+ touchdown passes
Want more same-game ideas? Jason Logan has three more in his Patriots vs. Bears parlays and top combo picks.
Patriots vs Bears touchdown scorer: DeMario Douglas
DeMario Douglas and Maye are quietly building excellent chemistry, connecting for three touchdowns over the past two games.
Douglas has also turned four red-zone targets this season into two scores. His touchdowns against Las Vegas came from 35 and eight yards out, so we don’t need him to break off a chunk play to cash this prop, although I’ll happily take one.
He can cash this in different ways, and at 23%, I’ll back Maye to keep rewarding a receiver he’s clearly finding a rhythm with right now.
Want more Patriots props? Our Patriots vs. Bears computer picks project Maye, Brown, Henry, and Stevenson, along with four Bears props.
Patriots vs Bears player prop: DeMario Douglas 40+ receiving yards
Even with A.J. Brown back Sunday, Douglas led New England with seven catches for 86 yards on eight targets after posting 65 yards the week before.
Brown dropped three passes, while Douglas continued building the chemistry I love with Maye. With Romeo Doubs on the injured reserve, there’s more opportunity to go around.
Chicago ranks 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt, and Douglas just torched Las Vegas for a 35-yard touchdown. Getting Over 40 yards doesn’t require a monster night. A couple of quality connections could do the damage.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 2-4, -2.18 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00 units
Patriots vs Bears odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +3.5 | Bears -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (52%) | Under 50.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 41% | Bears 59%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board! Looking for more spread picks? See our NFL Week 7 picks against the spread.
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Patriots vs Bears weather
The current kickoff forecast calls for clear skies, temperatures around 60 degrees, and winds near 5 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Bears trend to know
New England is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in regular-season prime-time games under Mike Vrabel. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bears.
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How to watch Patriots vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Patriots vs Bears latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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