The NFC South picture has shifted from “win and in” to “win and wait.”
Tampa Bay needs a victory over Carolina on Saturday and a helping hand from New Orleans against Atlanta on Sunday.
The Panthers, meanwhile, control their own fate with a win, and their blueprint for doing so is simple: lean heavily on Chuba Hubbard.
He’s the focus of my best Panthers vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for January 3.
Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction
Panthers vs Buccaneers Best bet: Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 rushing yards (-114)
Chuba Hubbard has received a surge in playing time since Week 12, registering 20-plus snaps in each of the past four games.
While he still sits behind backfield mate Rico Dowdle in terms of involvement, Hubbard is finally getting more carries and targets after an injury-plagued fall limited his production.
Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week.
If Dowdle is hampered, the Carolina Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup. Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back.
“I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”
Hubbard had a big day in the win over the L.A. Rams in Week 12, rushing 17 times for 83 yards. Since then, he’s received eight carries for 29 yards, six handoffs for 27 yards (vs. Tampa Bay), and had just four runs for 12 yards in the loss to Seattle.
Typically, facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would mean tough sledding for rival running backs. However, the Buccaneers’ run defense has crumbled in the second half of the season.
It’s gone from a Top-3 defense in EPA allowed per handoffs and opponent success rate per run in the opening eight weeks to 21st and 14th in those advanced metrics since Week 9.
Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.
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Panthers vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
The Bucs have the better quarterback and home-field advantage, while the Panthers have struggled to score on the road.
Hubbard is the healthier of the two running backs, and his coach had faith in him for this finale.
Bucky Irving will get the goal-line runs and has also shown he can be part of this passing game.
Panthers vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers moneyline
- Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: MAC Rules!
It’s tough to beat a division rival twice in one season, especially on their own field with the season on the line.
Hubbard has seen an uptick in touches the past month, and Dowdle is playing through a toe injury.
Irving has been back a few games now and will get the red zone carries vs. Carolina.
Tetairoa McMillan scored against the Bucs two weeks ago and has five TDs in the last six games.
Panthers vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers moneyline
- Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Tetairoa McMillan anytime touchdown
Panthers vs Buccaneers game predictions
Panthers vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
We’ve seen the outright odds on this NFC South showdown move aggressively to start the week. Tampa Bay is a slim favorite but comes into this game playing its worst football. That said, I do trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young and would lean to the discounted Bucs in pirate waters.
Panthers vs Buccaneers spread prediction
Carolina took heavy action on the opening line, dropping this spread through the key number of a field goal to Bucs -2.5. It’s now back up to Tampa Bay -3. These rivals went down to the wire just two weeks ago, with the Panthers coming away with a 23-20 victory at home. I’d lean Tampa Bay.
Panthers vs Buccaneers Over/Under prediction
The Week 16 finish played Under the closing total of 44 points and this Week 18 “division championship” has the same Over/Under. Carolina has leaned on its defense to get the job done in recent weeks while this offense remains inconsistent, especially on the road when the Panthers score just 16.3 points per game. I’d go Under.
Panthers vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Panthers +3.5 (-110) | Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Panthers +165 | Buccaneers -200
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
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Panthers vs Buccaneers trend to know
Carolina is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Panthers vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC/ESPN |
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