Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
B. Irving
running back RB • Tampa Bay
Panthers @ Buccaneers Picks & Props
CAR vs TB Picks
NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Chuba Hubbard o28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week. If Dowdle is hampered, the Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup.
Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back. “I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”
Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.
Score a Touchdown
Chuba Hubbard Score a Touchdown (Yes: +230)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
In one of the few games where both teams have everything on the line, I’m backing the running back who controls 66% of the backfield workload and stands to earn an additional $250,000 with one more touchdown. This isn’t a longshot play, but with Carolina in must-win mode, Dowdle has clearly been the more effective back and should push past 20 opportunities. In a game plan built around him, the volume and motivation line up well for another trip to the end zone.
Score a Touchdown
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +170)
Projection 0.56 (Yes)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield u227.5 Passing Yards (-135)
Projection 218.26 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.. Baker Mayfield has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (194.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Interceptions Thrown
Bryce Young u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)
Projection 0.39 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 54.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Bryce Young to throw 31.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.
Receiving Yards
Emeka Egbuka o23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 37.18 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
Tommy Tremble o17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 22.15 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year.. This year, the imposing Buccaneers defense has given up a paltry 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-best in the NFL.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.1%) versus tight ends this year (78.1%).. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Bucky Irving o17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 19.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Bryce Young o17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 21.13 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Bryce Young's running efficiency (6.12 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile among quarterbacks).
Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving o59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 64.24 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, the stout Carolina Panthers run defense has surrendered a mere 4.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 23rd-lowest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's group of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
CAR vs TB Consensus Picks
CAR vs TB Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Tommy Tremble Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. Tremble
tight end TE • Carolina
The projections expect the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate. The projections expect Tommy Tremble to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line in this game (11.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played). In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.1%) versus tight ends this year (78.1%). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 2nd-most receiving TDs in the league to TEs: 0.69 per game this year.
Emeka Egbuka Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
E. Egbuka
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Tetairoa McMillan Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. McMillan
wide receiver WR • Carolina
The projections expect the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.
Rico Dowdle Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
R. Dowdle
running back RB • Carolina
The projections expect the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate. Rico Dowdle's 14.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 81st percentile for running backs. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year.
Mike Evans Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
M. Evans
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
With a top-tier 27.3% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) this year, Mike Evans stands among the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL. After accruing 99.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has seen marked improvement this year, now boasting 117.0 per game. Mike Evans grades out in the 85th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.38 per game.
Cade Otton Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
C. Otton
tight end TE • Tampa Bay
The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.4%) vs. tight ends this year (79.4%).
Bryce Young Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
B. Young
quarterback QB • Carolina
The projections expect the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate. Accounting for a mere 1.7% of his offense's red zone carries this year (23rd percentile among QBs), Bryce Young's lack of mobility makes him no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year.
Baker Mayfield Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
B. Mayfield
quarterback QB • Tampa Bay
Totaling zero red zone rush attempts this year, Baker Mayfield's immobility makes him a no threat on the ground near the end zone.
Chuba Hubbard Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
C. Hubbard
running back RB • Carolina
Rachaad White Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
R. White
running back RB • Tampa Bay
Chris Godwin Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
C. Godwin Jr.
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Sean Tucker Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
S. Tucker
running back RB • Tampa Bay
Jalen McMillan Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
J. McMillan
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Mitchell Evans Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
M. Evans
tight end TE • Carolina
Xavier Legette Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
X. Legette
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Brycen Tremayne Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
B. Tremayne
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Hunter Renfrow Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
H. Renfrow
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Trevor Etienne Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. Etienne
running back RB • Carolina
Devin Culp Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
D. Culp
tight end TE • Tampa Bay
Tez Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
T. Johnson
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
James Mitchell Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Mitchell
tight end TE • Carolina
Jaycee Horn Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Horn
cornerback CB • Carolina
Kameron Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
K. Johnson
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Payne Durham Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
P. Durham
tight end TE • Tampa Bay
Jalen Coker Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Coker
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Sterling Shepard Score a Touchdown Props • Tampa Bay
S. Shepard
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
CAR vs TB Trends
Carolina Trends
The Carolina Panthers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 away games (+5.55 Units / 53% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+8.23 Units / 44% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.80 Units / 26% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 19 games (-8.05 Units / -36% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Carolina Panthers have only covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 19 games (-6.85 Units / -31% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Carolina Panthers have only covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 17 games (-6.70 Units / -34% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 17 games (-6.35 Units / -34% ROI)
Over
Under
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 17 games (-5.25 Units / -28% ROI)
Tampa Bay Trends
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Over
Under
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.95 Units / 28% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 18% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 18 games (-9.80 Units / -48% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 18 games (-9.51 Units / -38% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-9.30 Units / -36% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 21 games (-9.05 Units / -37% ROI)
CAR
TB
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only covered the Spread in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.55 Units / -37% ROI)
CAR
TB
