Detroit @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate. The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this week's game (30.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.4% in games he has played).

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate. This year, the anemic Lions defense has allowed a colossal 0.75 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing TEs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a superb 5.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched a massive 64.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 90.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks an impressive progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 83.6% rate. With a stellar rate of 1.20 per game through the air (100th percentile), Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among wide receivers this year.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's game (18.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played). Sam LaPorta's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 84th percentile for tight ends. Sam LaPorta's 86.2% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 77.8% rate. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals defense has been gouged for a whopping 0.50 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning. This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate. Our trusted projections expect Jake Browning to throw 38.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. While Jahmyr Gibbs has received 66.7% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Detroit's rushing attack near the end zone this week at 48.9%. Jahmyr Gibbs's 27.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 18.2. Jahmyr Gibbs's 96.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 82.3% figure. Since the start of last season, the deficient Bengals pass defense has surrendered a whopping 91.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in football.

The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. Jared Goff's 76.1% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 72.0% mark. Jared Goff has been among the leading TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 1.80 per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile. The running TD column reads "0" on Jared Goff's player page this year. This year, the anemic Bengals defense has conceded a colossal 2.00 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.