For a long time, if you asked the average NFL bettor what home-field advantage was worth, you got the same answer: three points on the spread. But the collective understanding of what home-field advantage is worth today has evolved rapidly due to a long-standing downward trend, as well as adjustments suggested and made during the nearly fan-less season of the COVID pandemic.
In the years since fans fully returned to NFL stadiums, bettors and analysts have continued to track whether home-field advantage would rebound to its historical levels. So, what has the data told us, and do we now have a clearer understanding of how much home-field advantage is worth?
NFL home-field advantage by team
The data in the table below displays win rate at home vs. win rate on the road for each NFL franchise across the past four decades.
| Team | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 94.7% | 78.3% | 36.4% | -44.8% |
| ATL | 95.8% | 27.0% | 10.5% | 31.8% |
| BAL | 40.0% | 78.8% | 48.7% | 3.4% |
| BUF | 39.0% | 29.6% | 50.0% | 27.8% |
| CAR | 50.0% | 11.4% | 18.9% | 66.1% |
| CHI | 48.1% | 41.7% | 8.6% | 133.3% |
| CIN | 113.3% | 51.9% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 15.8% | 18.5% | 100.0% | 104.1% |
| DAL | 41.5% | 30.6% | 9.8% | 25.0% |
| DEN | 63.2% | 45.7% | 25.0% | 45.0% |
| DET | 82.8% | 190.0% | 15.2% | 30.8% |
| GB | 82.4% | 28.6% | 38.6% | 44.8% |
| HOU | NA | 61.9% | 28.6% | 5.5% |
| IND | 37.9% | 9.1% | 44.1% | -3.3% |
| JAX | 54.5% | 40.6% | 75.0% | 50.4% |
| KAN | 72.2% | 60.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 30.0% | 38.5% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| LAR | 42.3% | 42.9% | 17.1% | 30.8% |
| LV | 21.6% | 32.0% | 25.0% | 54.7% |
| MIA | 29.3% | 20.6% | 51.7% | 69.7% |
| MIN | 27.3% | 92.6% | 56.3% | 20.0% |
| NOR | 8.6% | -9.1% | 24.4% | -3.9% |
| NE | 40.0% | 20.0% | 26.9% | -31.0% |
- Arizona went from a massive 94.7% edge in the 1990s to a shocking –44.8% in the 2020s, one of the steepest drops.
- Kansas City had strong home advantage in the 1990s and 2000s (72.2% and 60.7%) but has nearly lost it entirely in the 2020s (0%).
- New England dropped steadily from 40.0% in the 1990s to –31.0% in the 2020s.
- Baltimore and Jacksonville show relatively stable but modest home edges across decades.
- Detroit has been highly volatile, peaking at 190% in the 2000s but dropping to 15.2% in the 2010s.
How much does home-field advantage matter in the NFL?
Home-field advantage has historically been a meaningful factor in the NFL, but its impact has declined in recent years. From 1970 through the early 2010s, home teams consistently won around 57–60% of games. However, since 2019, that number has dropped closer to 52–53%, only a modest edge above a coin flip. Several factors contribute to this shift, including improvements in travel logistics, standardized stadium conditions, and rule changes that favor offenses, which tend to travel better than defenses.
Crowd noise and familiarity with a home stadium still matter, especially in indoor or high-altitude venues like New Orleans and Denver, but the league-wide edge has narrowed. Betting markets have reflected this trend: where oddsmakers once routinely awarded a three-point spread bump to home teams, today that number is often closer to 1.5 points.
Data also shows that not all home field advantages are created equal. Teams with unique environmental conditions, such as Denver’s altitude or Seattle’s famously loud crowd, still generate stronger results at home than league averages. Travel distance is another factor: West Coast teams flying east for early kickoffs historically underperform.
However, as analytics departments and sports science staffs have refined preparation and recovery protocols, those disadvantages are shrinking. Overall, while home field remains a small but real factor, the NFL is trending toward greater parity regardless of venue. For teams, this means the emphasis is increasingly on roster construction and game planning rather than relying on stadium advantage. For bettors and analysts, it suggests that home field advantage is no longer a blanket assumption but a context-specific variable.
How often does the home team win in the NFL?
On average, NFL home teams win just over half their games, but the advantage isn’t as strong as it used to be. Historically, from the 1970s through the early 2010s, home teams won close to 57–60% of the time. Over the past few seasons, however, that edge has diminished, and since 2019 the win rate for home teams has hovered around 52–53%. That’s only a slight edge above random chance, meaning that while playing at home still provides some benefit, it’s no longer the near-automatic bump that bettors could count on in past decades.
For handicapping, this decline matters. Oddsmakers once routinely gave home teams a standard three-point edge in the spread, but in today’s market that figure has been cut in half, closer to 1.5 points. Across the league the numbers show that betting purely on the home team is no longer profitable. Successful bettors now weigh matchup-specific factors like travel distance, rest days, injuries, and team quality far more heavily than the simple fact of where the game is played.
Resetting the table
In 2019, home teams won just 52.3% of games (the second-lowest mark at the time), and their average scoring margin was just 0.1 points (the lowest mark at the time). Their spread cover rate was also just 43.1% despite the average home line plummeting down a half point from the previous season (-2.5) to a new all-time low of -2.0.
Then, in the COVID-stricken 2020 season, things got worse. The average home line dropped to -1.3, which was the first time in 20 years the average home line dropped in consecutive years. The drops from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent drop from 2019 to 2020 were also the two largest during that span.
The shifts in the market and home-team performances had many bettors and analysts claiming that home-field advantage was effectively dead prior to the 2021 season — a sentiment that carried over into the 2022 season. But considering the exceptional circumstances of the 2020 season (with little to no fans in attendance) and in anticipation of the presence of fans having at least some effect, we warned against that line of thinking.
Understanding the change, setting the expectation
So what parts of diminishing home-field advantage were noise, and which still hold weight entering 2026?
Disadvantage from travel
The mental and physical tolls of traveling have eased over time. Whether it's the travel itself becoming less taxing, the hiring of sleep scientists to optimize sleep schedules, or improving technology enhancing game preparation during travel, there are plenty of reasons traveling teams are at a much smaller disadvantage than they were in previous decades.
Referee bias
Some data supports the notion that referees are inherently biased towards home teams, most likely due to the pressure to appease home crowds. In the three seasons before 1999, home teams had a 62.0% win rate and 52.6% cover rate. Then, in 1999, the NFL introduced challenges and instant replay. In the three seasons following the change, the home team's win rate dropped to 56.9%, and their cover rate dropped to 49.7%.
Fans affect football
A study by Ben Caterine of the Northwestern Sports Analytics Group further supports the notion that fan presence impacts performance.
In said study, Caterine examined home team performance during the 2020 "COVID" season during which fan attendance was allowed to varying extents. He found that home teams won 54% of games when fans were allowed and only won 47% of games when no fans were permitted.
Ignore the 2020 season
All in all, we concluded that the 2020 season was an extreme outlier and worth ignoring. And when examining and paying respect to home-field advantage trends dating back to 2007, we predicted that the average home line would land around -1.9.
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NFL home-field advantage FAQs
Yes, but not as much as it used to. While home teams are generally still favored to win NFL games, their average home line has been coming down over the past decade.
On average, home-field advantage is worth 1.5 points across the NFL.
