The 4,000-yard club remains one of the NFL's most exclusive benchmarks of quarterback excellence, reached by just six passers in the 2024 season. Heading into 2025, only elite signal-callers like Joe Burrow of the Bengals and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs are widely projected to join its ranks again, and I personally believe only one of them will reach that hallowed mark.
My NFL picks look at the chances of Burrow, Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott to throw for 4,000+ yards in 2025.
Target these three QBs for 4,000+ yards
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (-310 at DraftKings)
Not only is Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow carrying an implied probability to throw for 4,000-plus yards of 75.6%, he’s also hanging among the betting favorites at +650 in the MVP odds.
Burrow has cleared the benchmark in three of his first five seasons, and being limited to just 10 games as a rookie in 2020 and again in 2023 because of season-ending injuries is the reason he hasn’t hit the 4,000-yard mark in all five.
The two-time Pro Bowler is healthy heading into the 2025 season, and he aced the underlying statistics while pacing the NFL with 4,918 passing yards on a league-high 652 passing attempts and 460 completions.
Burrow matched the high passing volume with ranks of second in both PFF passing grade and CPOE while also ranking fourth in adjusted EPA per play.
Cincy didn’t make huge moves to upgrade its defense, and the Bengals spent big bucks to bring back go-to wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+125 at DraftKings)
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield replicate his breakout 2024 campaign?
The good news is that even with serious negative regression to Mayfield’s numbers, he can still throw for 4,000-plus yards. He topped the mark during his first season with the Bucs in 2023 while throwing for a respectable 7.1 yards per attempt.
Mayfield skyrocketed to 4,500 passing yards on 7.9 YPA and a 71.4 completion percentage, and while I do expect those numbers to take a hit across the board, the receiving corps is loaded.
Tampa wide-outs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed time last year, and it didn’t impact Mayfield’s numbers greatly. Additionally, sophomore Jalen McMillan was able to contribute as a rookie, and the organization also prioritized the position by selecting Emeka Egbuka with the 19th overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Finally, I also value both running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White checking out a plus-options in the passing game out of the backfield.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+130 at DraftKings)
The Dallas Cowboys made offseason noise trading for wide receiver George Pickens, and he’s now positioned for his best season starting opposite four-time Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb.
Health has been the only thing holding back Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott, as he’s missed time in three of the past five seasons. The Cowboys have needed Prescott to air it out when he’s on the field because of an unreliable running game and susceptible defense.
The running game doesn’t look any better leading into the 2025 season, and expecting the defense to flip the script is a huge ask.
It all adds up to Prescott needing to attack vertically, and the addition of Pickens along with tight end Jake Ferguson also heading into the season healthy gives the quarterback the necessary weapons to post a fourth 4,000-passing yards campaign in 2025.
Look, but don't touch
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (-125 at DraftKings)
I’m skeptical Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes reaches the 4,000-passing yards threshold in 2025.
He finished 2024 with career lows in passing yards (3,928) and yards per attempt (6.8) since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, and it was the second consecutive season of considerable statistical decline after posting a monster 5,251 passing yards on 8.1 YPA in 2022.
Kansas City has leaned on long, calculated drives to churn the clock on offense, in addition to an excellent defense. That game script doesn’t fully complement airing it out, and the receiving weapons aren’t exactly a "who’s who" collection of Pro Bowlers.
Additionally, if the Chiefs are going to make another Super Bowl run, having Mahomes playing as healthy as possible in the playoffs is a must. As a result, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t play all 17 regular-season games.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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