I will take some action early this season something I haven't done as who knows how these team's will do in preseason and how the lines will move.
But I have been watching this past couple of years and have not gotten the best of the lines by waiting although it hasn't mattered as of yet anyway.
Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units
Giants have regression indicators showing improvements this season while Wash has some showing declines.
The expected Win Margin between these 2 teams is 3, 2.9 or over has a high probability of covering for Giants week 1 along with other indicators on the Gmen.
2 more plays to come before week 1 but I'll wait these out, if lines hit a key number I'll jump on them.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I will take some action early this season something I haven't done as who knows how these team's will do in preseason and how the lines will move.
But I have been watching this past couple of years and have not gotten the best of the lines by waiting although it hasn't mattered as of yet anyway.
Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units
Giants have regression indicators showing improvements this season while Wash has some showing declines.
The expected Win Margin between these 2 teams is 3, 2.9 or over has a high probability of covering for Giants week 1 along with other indicators on the Gmen.
2 more plays to come before week 1 but I'll wait these out, if lines hit a key number I'll jump on them.
My favorite regression fade this season will be obviously KC. 11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen. KC might win 4 or 5 or even more fewer games this season. Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins. I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season
I would expect the team that's starting "virtually" a rookie QB to be that team.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
My favorite regression fade this season will be obviously KC. 11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen. KC might win 4 or 5 or even more fewer games this season. Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins. I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season
I would expect the team that's starting "virtually" a rookie QB to be that team.
I also like NYG, but I have not yet placed a wager. GB is my favorite Week 1 play so far.
Very interesting..
I'm really curious to see how DET responds to both their OC and DC moving on to take head coaching positions. Can DET pick up where they left off last year ? (And I'm not sure how much stock to put in their playoff performance when their coordinators had already interviewed/taken new positions. Such a distraction).
I like coach MCDC in DET, and I think he'll have his coaches and players ready in 2025. Contrast this with PHI a few years ago in the latter half of 2023, when the wheels fell off and team seemed lost after their OC and DC changes.
MCDC is better than Siriani IMHO. I'm banking the same mistakes don't occur w/ a better coach throughout the season.
.. What do you like about GB, and/or dislike about DET.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
I also like NYG, but I have not yet placed a wager. GB is my favorite Week 1 play so far.
Very interesting..
I'm really curious to see how DET responds to both their OC and DC moving on to take head coaching positions. Can DET pick up where they left off last year ? (And I'm not sure how much stock to put in their playoff performance when their coordinators had already interviewed/taken new positions. Such a distraction).
I like coach MCDC in DET, and I think he'll have his coaches and players ready in 2025. Contrast this with PHI a few years ago in the latter half of 2023, when the wheels fell off and team seemed lost after their OC and DC changes.
MCDC is better than Siriani IMHO. I'm banking the same mistakes don't occur w/ a better coach throughout the season.
.. What do you like about GB, and/or dislike about DET.
I will take some action early this season something I haven't done as who knows how these team's will do in preseason and how the lines will move. But I have been watching this past couple of years and have not gotten the best of the lines by waiting although it hasn't mattered as of yet anyway. Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units Giants have regression indicators showing improvements this season while Wash has some showing declines. The expected Win Margin between these 2 teams is 3, 2.9 or over has a high probability of covering for Giants week 1 along with other indicators on the Gmen. 2 more plays to come before week 1 but I'll wait these out, if lines hit a key number I'll jump on them.
I see too many people backing the Giants.
Trashmonsters - Unite & Horrify.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
I will take some action early this season something I haven't done as who knows how these team's will do in preseason and how the lines will move. But I have been watching this past couple of years and have not gotten the best of the lines by waiting although it hasn't mattered as of yet anyway. Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units Giants have regression indicators showing improvements this season while Wash has some showing declines. The expected Win Margin between these 2 teams is 3, 2.9 or over has a high probability of covering for Giants week 1 along with other indicators on the Gmen. 2 more plays to come before week 1 but I'll wait these out, if lines hit a key number I'll jump on them.
My favorite regression fade this season will be obviously KC. 11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen. KC might win 4 or 5 or even more fewer games this season. Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins. I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season
Since you seem confident about these two potential regression Under plays, I wonder if you have considered selling one game on the RSWL's?
At Heritage, these are their RSWL's:
KC Under
12.5/-250
11.5/-130
10.5/+149
MIN Under
9.5/-130
8.5/+120
7.5/+214
Heritage does not let bettors buy or sell more than one game.
Some regression from last year's wins has been built into those lines:
KC 15 to 11.5, MIN 14 to 8.5. KC does look like a better play but MIN provides a juicier price.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
My favorite regression fade this season will be obviously KC. 11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen. KC might win 4 or 5 or even more fewer games this season. Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins. I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season
Since you seem confident about these two potential regression Under plays, I wonder if you have considered selling one game on the RSWL's?
At Heritage, these are their RSWL's:
KC Under
12.5/-250
11.5/-130
10.5/+149
MIN Under
9.5/-130
8.5/+120
7.5/+214
Heritage does not let bettors buy or sell more than one game.
Some regression from last year's wins has been built into those lines:
KC 15 to 11.5, MIN 14 to 8.5. KC does look like a better play but MIN provides a juicier price.
Lions own green bay like the bills own the dolphins. There is no fundamental reason to take gb beside coaching changes. Detroit not only wins in lambeau they dominate the trenches and beat them down
Why is arizona td favs against the saints ? Bad favorite and saints when healthy have talent. The team was never healthy
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Lions own green bay like the bills own the dolphins. There is no fundamental reason to take gb beside coaching changes. Detroit not only wins in lambeau they dominate the trenches and beat them down
Why is arizona td favs against the saints ? Bad favorite and saints when healthy have talent. The team was never healthy
It’s a little early to be so concerned about consensus. I’m certainly a lot of love for the Commanders will appear.
I’ve done numerous practice fantasy drafts and the love for Washington offensive talent is strong and very popular.
We’ll see if the GMan’s offseason made a difference.
Commanders 2024 weak strength of schedule doesn’t make any difference in their division games.
Obe thing that influences this game before the kickoff is the -7 is a lot of points for a team that rebuilt from 2023. One year from not good to -7 in a division game is a big switch.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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@maxwagers781
It’s a little early to be so concerned about consensus. I’m certainly a lot of love for the Commanders will appear.
I’ve done numerous practice fantasy drafts and the love for Washington offensive talent is strong and very popular.
We’ll see if the GMan’s offseason made a difference.
Commanders 2024 weak strength of schedule doesn’t make any difference in their division games.
Obe thing that influences this game before the kickoff is the -7 is a lot of points for a team that rebuilt from 2023. One year from not good to -7 in a division game is a big switch.
I targeted this game as a Saints upset winner. It’s a hidden gem because of the Saints QB drafted. Not a lot of people are giving the Saints enough credit after their 2024 record after week 2
I’ll make 2 points that I see.
Does anyone remember the Saints first 2 games in 2024? after those big wins the Saints were favorites over the Eagles!
I would guess a good amount of the survivor pickers will select the Cardinals in this game and lose.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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@saintsfan1977
I targeted this game as a Saints upset winner. It’s a hidden gem because of the Saints QB drafted. Not a lot of people are giving the Saints enough credit after their 2024 record after week 2
I’ll make 2 points that I see.
Does anyone remember the Saints first 2 games in 2024? after those big wins the Saints were favorites over the Eagles!
I would guess a good amount of the survivor pickers will select the Cardinals in this game and lose.
There was an early move to 6.5 that I was reflecting on. Clearly people are giving the giants respect on the road. They have the players but haven’t played a game together and that should be a concern. So it might be something else that motivated the move off of -7. Fear of decline in Washington factors into this. It’s a fade of Daniels coming into his second season.
Nuthin but a g thang baby
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@spottie2935
There was an early move to 6.5 that I was reflecting on. Clearly people are giving the giants respect on the road. They have the players but haven’t played a game together and that should be a concern. So it might be something else that motivated the move off of -7. Fear of decline in Washington factors into this. It’s a fade of Daniels coming into his second season.
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