REGRESSION PLAYS WEEK 1...........................2025

I will take some action early this season something I haven't done as who knows how these team's will do in preseason and how the lines will move.

But I have been watching this past couple of years and have not gotten the best of the lines by waiting although it hasn't mattered as of yet anyway.

Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units

Giants have regression indicators showing improvements this season while Wash has some showing declines.

The expected Win Margin between these 2 teams is 3, 2.9 or over has a high probability of covering for Giants week 1 along with other indicators on the Gmen.

2 more plays to come before week 1 but I'll  wait these out, if lines hit a key number I'll jump on them.

GLuck this season Hoss 

@theclaw

 BOL week 1 and the season  

I also like NYG, but I have not yet placed a wager.

GB is my favorite Week 1 play so far.

@theclaw

Lotta g men love coming in 

Thank you, same to you as well...........

Thanks, BOL to you as well ..........

Yes I see that....... I don't like it but I play the method for what it is .............

Nice, I do like GB week 1 but won't take action on the game.

Their expected Win difference  is 2.5, anything 2.5 or better has been successful over the years.

But I like to back the top 2 largest differences , GB is 5th.

9ers have 2.7 difference  over Seattle.

I like 9ers as well but won't take action .

My favorite regression  fade this season will be obviously KC.

11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen.

KC might win 4 or 5 or even  more fewer games this season.

Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins.

I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season

I would expect the team that's starting "virtually" a rookie QB to be that team.  

Definitely trust KC to not fall off anywhere near as much as MIN.  

Very interesting..  

I'm really curious to see how DET responds to both their OC and DC moving on to take head coaching positions.  Can DET pick up where they left off last year ?  (And I'm not sure how much stock to put in their playoff performance when their coordinators had already interviewed/taken new positions.  Such a distraction).  

I like coach MCDC in DET, and I think he'll have his coaches and players ready in 2025.  Contrast this with PHI a few years ago in the latter half of 2023, when the wheels fell off and team seemed lost after their OC and DC changes. 

MCDC is better than  Siriani IMHO.  I'm banking the same mistakes don't occur w/ a better coach throughout the season.  

.. What do you like about GB, and/or dislike about DET. 

I see too many people backing the Giants.