Starting off my 2022 NFL campaign with MNF.
Highly rated Chiefs play the mediocre Raiders.
I could waste a lot of time analyzing various rushing & passing stats, or get lost in the irrelevent minutiae of "trends," but for me the relevent analysis always comes down to just a few KEY points:
- Key injuries?
- Against whom did each team play so far?
- What were the previous results? (and were they lucky/unlucky?)
- Where were those results played? Home or road?
For tonight, both teams will field a number of walking wounded. The Chiefs moreso on offense, but the Raiders moreso on defense. I'll consider this a wash, although Waller could be a HUGE loss for the Raiders if he gets hurt further on his shoulder, because TE Moreau is also out. Not sure how big a loss Brown is in the LB corps. But Chiefs are aware of these.
From their schedules, we see both teams faced AZ and LAC. Raiders LOST BOTH, while the Chiefs WON BOTH.
Raiders then split against mediocre teams, while Chiefs also split their last two games but one was a big win on the road at highly rated Tampa!
Thus, Raiders played a slightly weaker schedule so far.
Raiders are 1 - 3 with a mediocre -4 net pt differential against that collectively weaker group.
They LOST both their road games, by 5 and 2 respectively, and BOTH against mediocre opponents.
They are on the road tonight, but finally facing a VERY GOOD opponent!
Chiefs are 3 - 1 with an EXCELLENT +33 net pt. differential in their 4 games, one of which was on the road at a very tough opponent.
And finally, not only did Chiefs achieve a 3 - 1 record against slightly better opponents overall, amassing +33 net pt. differential from their wins, they did so while playing 3 road games and only benefitted from a single home game!
They get the the benefit from a home game tonight!
Of course anything can happen in football as we witnessed this weekend. Lucky breaks can flip everything. Raiders need net lucky breaks in their favor to win. But if the breaks are about even, KC wins by 5 to 14 pts here.
Chiefs -350 @Bet365 *BEST BET
Chiefs -4 -170 @BetCRIS
*PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. Do it YOUR way, it's likely far less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.