The New York Jets are still in search of their third win, and after a few encouraging weeks they’ll have their shot at the Atlanta Falcons at home on Sunday.
With Atlanta forced to go back to its second-string quarterback, my Falcons vs. Jets predictions will explain why there are fair questions regarding how these teams will score the ball.
Read below for my free NFL picks for Sunday, November 30.
Falcons vs Jets predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Falcons vs Jets spread pick: Jets +2.5
The New York Jets are coming off a “good” loss, if you accept that term into your vernacular. Sure, this team won’t be making the playoffs, but the last four weeks — and honestly the last six weeks at large — have been promising.
You just want to see things improve under a new head coach, even in a lost season, and the Jets’ defense has certainly answered the bell. After trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams and briefly benching his brother Quincy, New York’s defense has gone out and slowed some of the most dangerous offenses in football.
The key for New York will always be its run defense, and it did its job last week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets limited Baltimore to just 2.9 yards per carry and now comfortably sit 12th in DVOA against the run, something that should once again keep this game in a manageable range.
The Atlanta Falcons are running the 13th-most frequently in the league and have been forced to lean even more heavily upon Bijan Robinson to power the offense, with quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. lost for the season. That should help the Jets in this game, as I’m not quite ready to believe in the aging Kirk Cousins after just one game against one of the worst defenses in football.
Tyrod Taylor looked competent in his own right against Baltimore, even if it ultimately was a 10-point day for the offense, and Breece Hall continued to wreak havoc in the passing game alongside newcomer John Metchie III.
Atlanta’s defense has given up a hefty 4.6 yards per carry and has been victimized by short passes, leading me to believe in New York at home.
Early Falcons vs Jets total pick: Under 39.5
The Falcons had played to the Over in three straight weeks prior to going to Cousins under center, and I don’t know if much will change here. We can forecast plenty of run plays given the strengths of both teams offensively, and with New York continuing to dominate up front, it may take Atlanta’s offense a while to get going.
A critical note here, too, may be the fact that the Falcons and Jets rank ninth and 12th in red zone scoring defense, respectively, and while Atlanta’s been solid in that regard, it only made it to the red zone twice last week, scoring once. We know the Jets are a horrid team inside the 20, ranking 23rd in terms of conversion rate, and last week they were only able to reach the red zone twice as well.
I think these offenses will be up against it, and if they do approach the end zone, there’s no guarantee we’ll see touchdowns. This is certainly a low number, but I anticipate a cagey affair down the stretch with each team looking to stubbornly establish the run all game long, given the tight margins.
Falcons vs Jets odds
- Falcons vs. Jets spread: Jets +2.5
- Falcons vs. Jets moneyline: Falcons -146, Jets +124
- Falcons vs. Jets Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Falcons vs Jets
- Falcons vs. Jets matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: East Rutherford, NJ
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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