The Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions has the potential to be one of the more exciting games of the season, with two of the league’s top offenses matching up.
Detroit's favored by three, but my Cowboys vs Lions predictions see a shootout taking place.
Here’s my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on December 4.
Cowboys vs Lions prediction
Cowboys vs Lions Best bet: Over 54.5 (-110)
The Over in this matchup between high-scoring offenses and vulnerable defenses is one of my favorite plays of the week. These units rank second and third in scoring, and both defenses have major flaws in key areas.
The Detroit Lions should have little trouble sustaining drives against a Dallas Cowboys defense that sits last in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
With Amon-Ra St. Brown’s status uncertain, Detroit may lean more on the run. The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is positioned for a big night against a Cowboys front that ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush and also gives up the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Even if the Lions are undermanned at receiver, they face a Dallas defense that’s one of the worst in the league against the pass, so success through the air will be likely as well.
The fans won’t be on their side, but it’s hard not to like this Dallas offense in an indoor, controlled environment against a defense that has been lit up in consecutive games.
Dak Prescott and his receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should also thrive against a Detroit defense that's vulnerable through the air. The Lions rank 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt over their last three games, while Dallas ranks second offensively in that category.
Adding even more appeal to the Over, these defenses rank 27th and 30th in opponent red-zone touchdown rate, so we should see more touchdowns than field-goal attempts inside the 20s.
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Cowboys vs Lions TNF same-game parlay
In a game that should feature plenty of points, Gibbs is an easy TD pick with 13 scores in 12 games and a strong matchup against a Cowboys defense that struggles against running backs in the pass game. Pickens and Lamb also profile well to score against a Lions secondary that’s allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Cowboys vs Lions SGP
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Goff goes long
I love Jared Goff to connect on a big pass vs. a Cowboys defense that’s tied for allowing the most pass plays of 40+ yards. Goff has gone Over this number in four of his last five games, and is tied for fourth in the NFL in pass attempts of 30 or more air yards.
Cowboys vs Lions SGP
- Jared Goff longest completion Over 35.5 yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
Cowboys vs Lions odds
- Spread: Dallas +3 (-110) | Detroit -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +145 | Detroit -170
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs Lions betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the first half of Cowboys' road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Lions.
How to watch Cowboys vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, December 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
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