Cincinnati Bengals Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Element of Surprise is Gone for Cincy

The Cincinnati Bengals’ AFC title and Super Bowl showing have to be one of the biggest stunners in NFL betting history, considering this team was pegged as an underdog in all but two games heading into last season. 

The 2022 Bengals are now in uncharted waters, with lofty expectations and an orange and black target on their backs. Oddsmakers are split on Cincy’s success in 2022, with a win total bouncing around double digits and the lookahead lines landing between nine and 11 wins, depending on where you bet.

Cincinnati is trying to capture lightning in a bottle with this current squad, quickly addressing glaring weaknesses like the offensive line and secondary this offseason. But is that enough to keep the momentum and — more importantly — the magic rolling?

Here’s our Cincinnati Bengals 2022 NFL betting preview.

Cincinnati Bengals futures odds

Best futures bet: Under 10 wins (-120)

I made some great calls in my set of 2021 NFL previews, but betting the Bengals Under 6.5 wins wasn’t one of them. That said, Cincinnati did get some help when it came to slapping me in the face with double-digit victories.

The AFC North was in shambles, leading to a 4-2 straight up divisional count. The Bengals scooped early wins over bottom-feeding Jacksonville and Detroit, before facing a softer home stretch and catching some breaks.

This win total can be had as low as 9.5 (Over -120), but with games against Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore closing out the final two months — Bengals backers need all the wins they can get before the winter sets in.

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Cincinnati Bengals betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

Thought I was going to say offense, didn’t you? 

There’s no denying the danger factor of this Bengals’ attack. Still, it will be the stop unit that carries Cincy cash to the bank in the closing quarters — helped along by an offense that should have Cincinnati playing with the lead and making opponents’ playbooks one-dimensional in the second half.

The pass rush was a pleasant surprise in 2021, with defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo getting 42 sacks from a unit that blitzed just 20.5% of the time (seventh lowest rate). The Bengals did give up a ton of passing yards when the level of QB competition increased, but Cincy also added lots of speed and depth to the secondary this offseason (still waiting on Jesse Bates drama to pan out).

If the pass rush can continue to cause chaos, that could help support the secondary and lead to an increase in the 13 interceptions from last season.

The versatile defense has stood out in the early workings of training camp and can build on the back of a fantastic postseason in which Cincinnati checked some high-octane offenses to just over 20 points per game. 

What will lose bets: Offensive line

Joe Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times in 2021 — not what you want with the face of your franchise coming back from a career-threatening injury. The Bengals rushed to remedy this problem with their wallet wide open, bringing in plenty of new faces on the offensive line. Improvement is inevitable (it can’t get any worse). But how those protectors gel is another thing.

Burrow’s absence in camp and preseason due to an appendectomy leaves little game-speed reps with this new unit. The Bengals play a series of showdowns with legit pass rushes to start the season: Pittsburgh, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, and New Orleans.

Reports out of camp haven’t been glowing for the new OL, and the opening preseason game didn’t paint a pretty picture either. Big spends Alex Cappa and La’el Collins have already missed time with injury as a Week 1 date with Pittsburgh (No. 1 in sacks in 2021) draws near.

Cincinnati Bengals game-by-game odds

There are contrasting power ratings for the Bengals, from book to book. Some shops have Cincinnati as a favorite in 10 games (was a -5 chalk at Jets in Week 3 prior to Wilson's injury) with two matchups vs. Cleveland off the board. Others have Cincy as the fave in only seven outings, boasting slimmer spreads for those games in which the Bengals are giving the points.

Last season’s slate was perfect for Cincinnati to build momentum and make a run at the playoffs — and then some — as it played six of its final nine contests at home. The 2022 calendar offers a similar window in the final two months, with four of the final six games inside the newly named Paycor Stadium, but that home stretch is loaded with postseason contenders. 

It seems unfathomable that the Bengals entered 2021 as underdogs in 15 of 17 games, but they won’t catch foes with their pants down this year. Cincy owns the third toughest schedule in terms of standard SOS and ranks out tied for seventh in my QB SOS — if Watson is active for those meetings with its Ohio rival.

Cincinnati Bengals pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

The Bengals' offensive line has improved and they have a very condensed target share. I have concerns about the defense overachieving last season. I rarely play Overs on season long props, but Tee Higgins Over 975.5 receiving yards is appealing.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Cincinnati Bengals early season forecast

The defending AFC North champs get to stake their claim in the division from the get-go, giving 6.5 points to Pittsburgh in Week 1 — just the fourth time in Taylor’s tenure that Cincinnati has been installed as a fave of -6.5 or more. Ye olde “Super Bowl Hangover” trend is in play here, with Big Game losers going just 5-17 against the spread in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.

A sexy non-conference contest awaits in Week 2, with the Bengals ranging from +1.5 to as high as +2.5 at Dallas. The Cowboys could creep to -3 depending on their result vs. Tampa Bay in Week 1 and the Bengals success with the Steelers. Zac Taylor is just 2-10-1 SU (5-8 ATS) in non-conference games during his three years in Cincy.

Cincinnati was 5-point road chalk in East Rutherford for Week 3 before Zach Wilson’s knee injury took this lookahead line off the board. The Bengals may have a score to settle with the Jets after losing to Gang Green in a nasty schedule spot on Halloween last year: A game in which Cincy made backup Mike White look like Joe Namath. 

Cincinnati Bengals spot bet

Week 6: @ New Orleans (PK, 44.5)

Cincinnati will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks when it comes to the Crescent City in mid-October. The Bengals are at Dallas and New York in Weeks 2 and 3, and then come home to host Miami on a short week for Thursday Night Football in Week 4 before another double tap of road tilts at Baltimore and New Orleans in Weeks 5 and 6.

This matchup with the Saints is on the board between Bengals -1 and a pick’em and comes on the heels of a Sunday night showdown with the rival Ravens — a load-bearing result in the AFC North which could lead to a letdown spot in NOLA. If you want to throw salt on this sore schedule spot, recall that 2-10-1 SU record vs. the NFC since 2019.

Cincinnati Bengals totals tip

For a team with an offense as potent as the Bengals, the look-ahead totals are pretty tame for 2022. Nine of those available numbers (three games OTB) sit below 47 points, and Cincy wrapped 2021 with an 8-13 O/U record overall, playing Under in all four postseason games.

The 2022 totals reflect the quality of competition lining up opposite the Bengals. Cincinnati slams into a schedule packed with stingy stop units, including eight defenses ranked Top 10 in EPA allowed per play in 2021, along with three divisional foes with a ton of tape who are pegged for improvement in 2022.

As mentioned above, this Bengals defense gets overshadowed by the offensive weapons but has a lot of different looks and speed and is tough to game plan for, with Anarumo mixing up looks snap to snap. Let’s not forget Cincinnati finished just outside of the Top 10 in those same EPA metrics last year.

Star power: Joe Burrow props

Best prop: Under 4,450.5 passing yards (-120)

Burrow boasted 4,611 passing yards in 2021 against a schedule that had its teeth pulled out, as many opposing defenses that were supposed to push back declined or were decimated by injuries. "Joe Brrr" laid it on thick at the end of the season, amassing 971 of those gains in the final two starts of the regular season against Kansas City and Baltimore.

The Bengals are rich at receiver, and the table is set for Burrow to build on those stats in Year 3. But if the offensive line can’t come together quickly and the tougher 2022 sked has anything to say, the former Heisman winner may have to opt for quick passes to avoid pressure, shrinking his 8.1 intended air yards per throw from last season.

Cincinnati Bengals trend to know

In three seasons under Taylor, the Bengals have been one of the best Under bets away from home. 

The team finished 2-8 Over/Under as a visitor last season, including two road playoff games (went Under in a “neutral site” Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium), and is a collective 7-17-1 O/U as a visitor since 2019 — 71% Under winners.

The Bengals gave up just 18.1 points per road game in 2021, compared to an average of 25.9 at home, where Cincinnati went 6-4 O/U last season and is 15-11 O/U in Taylor’s tenure with the team.

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