My Bears vs. Seahawks prediction is backing Under 46.5 tonight thanks to Seattle's outstanding defense.
I'm also calling for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to feast on Chicago's sub-par pass stoppers.
Here are my best NFL picks for Monday Night Football ahead of kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) on November 2, with the Seahawks holding as a 3.5-point favorite.
Bears vs Seahawks prediction: Under 46.5
This is tied for the Seattle Seahawks' highest total of the season at 46.5, and I'm backing the Under with Seattle's defense controlling the game.
The Seahawks just held Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to three points and zero red-zone trips, the first time that has happened in Mahomes' career. Seattle dictates the pace, and the Chicago Bears could struggle both on the ground and through the air.
The Bears lead the league with 154 rushing yards per game, but Seattle hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight games.
With Kyle Monangai likely out, D'Andre Swift faces a defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry (second-best). Roschon Johnson may have to shoulder more of the workload.
No quarterback has thrown for more than 189 yards against Seattle, including Mahomes, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Brock Purdy. A midweek injury concern for Colston Loveland doesn't help, either.
Sam Darnold and Seattle's running game don't inspire much scoring confidence, even if Zach Charbonnet returns. The best Under 46.5 price may come at kickoff, but I doubt this line reaches the key number of 47.
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TOP PICK
Bears vs Seahawks touchdown scorer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) has been virtually unstoppable, commanding a 36% target share and a league-leading 51% share of the Seahawks' air yards. Seattle's offense revolves around getting him the ball.
The numbers tell the story. When JSN gets a touch, Seattle posts a +0.53 EPA, but that drops to -0.03 when he doesn't get the ball, the worst mark among offenses with a top-10 receiver. I'll take his touchdown probability up to 56% this week.
Chicago's fast-paced offense could create additional possessions and scoring opportunities on both sides. The Bears have also struggled to contain opposing wide receivers, ranking among just three teams allowing at least one touchdown and 150-plus receiving yards per game to the position this season. For more scorer options, see our Bears vs. Seahawks TD picks, plus our Bears TD picks and Seahawks TD picks.
COVERS INTEL: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has an 80% EPA share over his 27 games with the Seahawks, ranking 1st of 141 qualified receivers over their best 27-game stretch, per Sumer Sports.
Bears vs Seahawks player prop: Caleb Williams 225 passing yards - No
The Seahawks have held opposing quarterbacks under 180 net passing yards in every game this season, allowing an average of just 158 passing yards.
Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, and Brock Purdy all failed to reach 190 passing yards against a defense that ranks third in EPA per dropback. Those five quarterbacks finished an average of 46 yards below their closing passing totals.
Caleb Williams projects for 216 passing yards, according to Covers' projections powered by THE BLITZ. That's the same output Mahomes managed last week in a losing effort, as the Chiefs failed to reach the red zone even once.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Bears vs Seahawks combo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba can't be stopped, and Rashid Shaheed's injury could further boost his league-leading air-yard share. I love his TD price this week.
The Bears have a genius play-caller in Ben Johnson, but I can't shake what Seattle's defense did to Mahomes and Reid last week. The streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher or 200-yard passer is terrifying for any opposing offense.
Swift should dominate the running back opportunities with Monangai likely out. A potential negative game script and difficulty running the ball could force Ben Johnson to get Swift more involved through the air. If Loveland sits, expect Swift to record 4+ catches for the third straight game.
Want more individual plays? See our Bears vs. Seahawks prop picks.
Bears vs Seahawks combo
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
- Bears team total Under 21.5
- D'Andre Swift Over 3.5 receptions
Bears vs Seahawks market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Bears vs. Seahawks prediction.
- Top picks: 4-2, +1.78 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6 units
Bears vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bears +3.5 | Seahawks -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Bears 40% | Seahawks 60%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board and our Monday Night Football odds page.
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Bears vs Seahawks weather
There's nothing to worry about in Seattle on Monday night. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees, with a 1% chance of rain and light 2-mph winds.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bears vs Seahawks trend to know
The Seahawks have gone Over their first-half team total in only seven of their last 21 games, for -8.63 units and a -36% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Seahawks.
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How to watch Bears vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bears vs Seahawks latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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