Something has to break on Monday night, as the Chicago Bears and their Top-10 scoring offense head to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks and their No. 4 scoring defense.
Every option in the touchdown tab needs a good look this Monday, and my Bears vs. Seahawks anytime touchdown picks dig into the market with my favorite NFL picks.
Be sure to check out our Bears vs. Seahawks predictions ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Monday, Nov. 2.
Best Bears vs Seahawks anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Luther Burden III |
29% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
52% |
| Seattle DEF/ST |
3% |
| Long shot: Caleb Williams |
17% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Bears touchdown pick: Luther Burden III
Luther Burden III's fair price for a TD on Monday night is 33% according to Covers' prop projections. He leads the Chicago Bears in target share, air-yard share, and targets per route run.
The Seattle Seahawks haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight games, so the path to a visiting touchdown likely comes through the wide receivers, especially with Colston Loveland potentially not at 100%.
Burden posted 140 yards last week on low volume but also hauled in all eight targets the week before. He can cash with just five targets while offering double-digit target upside. He also leads Chicago's receivers with nine red-zone targets, while the rest of the WR group has combined for just 10.
Seahawks touchdown pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 36% target share and a league-leading 51% air-yard share. According to Sumer Sports, this is the best 27-game stretch by any receiver in the tracking era. He's dominant, and this offense is nothing when it isn't feeding him.
Per Sumer Sports, when JSN gets the ball, the Seahawks' EPA is +0.53; when he doesn't, it's -0.03, the worst mark of any offense with a Top-10 WR.
I'll take the JSN TD to 56% this week. Chicago plays at a fast pace, which could create more opportunities for both offenses. The Bears are also one of just three teams allowing at least a touchdown and 150+ receiving yards to opposing wide receivers per game this season.
First touchdown scorer pick: Seattle DEF/ST
The Seattle defense ranks third in the NFL in takeaways, while the Bears have struggled to protect the ball, averaging 1.6 giveaways per game, which ranks in the bottom five.
This is a long shot, of course, but Lumen Field will be at its loudest on that opening drive. Given how well the Seahawks defend the run, Chicago could easily find itself facing a third-and-long situation or two early.
Caleb Williams has been a little lucky with just one interception this season, while D'Andre Swift has put the ball on the ground twice and lost both fumbles.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Caleb Williams
It's a long-shot TD at a +EV price, with Williams carrying a fair probability of 21%. He's played two games since returning from his lower-body injury and should have a little more confidence running the ball after logging five carries for 18 yards last week.
Williams has also had at least one red-zone carry in every game he's played, with seven total, which ranks seventh in the league despite missing three games.
Bears vs Seahawks touchdown combo
It's another week of trying to land the double-quarterback rushing TD combo. It's hit once this season, with QBs scoring four rushing TDs through seven games to date.
Williams' 17% TD probability is +EV on its own and one of the better values on the board Monday night. His legs are getting healthier, and Seattle has been average against QB rushing, allowing 16.4 yards per game.
Sam Darnold has also logged some red-zone carries this season and has rushed for 19 and 17 yards in back-to-back games. There's enough rushing involvement on both sides to take another shot at the combo.
- TD picks: 21-70, -15.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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