When evaluating the Seattle Seahawks anytime touchdown scorer picks against the Chicago Bears, the expected script favors play action and concentrated passing volume. Seattle is a three-point favorite in a 46.5-point game, creating an implied team total near 24.75. Cool conditions with light wind should have little effect. Chicago has allowed touchdowns on 69% of opponent red-zone possessions and ranks poorly against tight ends, while its frequent blitzing creates both quick-throw opportunities and protection risk for Sam Darnold.
Top Seattle Seahawks anytime touchdown predictions
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| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner | TE | 30% | 55 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 52% | 54 |
| Eric Saubert | TE | 5% | 54 |
| Tory Horton | WR | 11% | 52 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 8% | 52 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 18% | 51 |
| Seahawks D/ST | D/ST | 21% | 31 |
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AJ Barner anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Barner has six red-zone targets, two inside the 10, plus one carry from inside the 5. His 29 total targets represent a 13.5% share and the strongest Seattle tight end role.
The matchup: Chicago ranks 27th in EPA allowed per target to tight ends and has conceded 8.6 yards per target to the position. Barner can attack linebackers and safeties on play-action seams, delays and leak routes.
The value: The submitted 30% probability is four points above the working 26% estimate. The matchup is favorable, but the price already reflects most of the advantage.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Smith-Njigba commands 36.3% of Seattle's targets and leads the team with 11 red-zone looks, five inside the 10. Both overall volume and scoring-area usage are elite.
The matchup: Chicago mixes more man coverage than most defenses and also blitzes frequently, giving Smith-Njigba opportunities on option routes and quick separators. Safety help remains the likely response to his target dominance.
The value: The 52% contract is 12 points above the working 40% estimate. He has Seattle's best raw receiving probability, but the market price is too short relative to the available edge.
Eric Saubert anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Saubert has five total targets and two red-zone looks, neither inside the 10. His role is blocking-heavy and subordinate to Barner.
The matchup: Chicago's weakness against tight ends creates a route for a secondary option when Barner draws the primary coverage exchange. Saubert would need a heavy-personnel leak or play-action flat route.
The value: The submitted 5% price is seven points below the working 12% estimate. The number compensates for the minimal volume, making him a viable long shot rather than a likely scorer.
Tory Horton anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Horton has 10 targets in four appearances and one red-zone target, which came inside the 10. His role is limited but tilted toward higher-value boundary and vertical routes.
The matchup: Chicago's man-coverage snaps create isolated opportunities outside, especially if safety attention follows Smith-Njigba. Horton's clearest touchdown route is a fade, go ball or scramble-drill target.
The value: The 11% contract sits two points below the working 13% estimate. It is modestly attractive if his route count remains stable, particularly if Rashid Shaheed is limited.
Sam Darnold anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Darnold has not established a recurring red-zone rushing role in the available sample. His touchdown path depends on an unplanned scramble or a rare keeper rather than designed usage.
The matchup: Chicago's frequent blitzes can open escape lanes if contain breaks, although its man defenders often retain quarterback vision through the rush. A pressure-created scramble from inside the 10 is the realistic route.
The value: The submitted 8% price is three points below the working 11% estimate. The discount is adequate for a small long-shot position, but the absence of repeatable goal-line work caps confidence.
Cooper Kupp anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Kupp has 27 targets for a 12.6% share and two red-zone targets, both inside the 10. His scoring opportunities are more valuable than his reduced overall volume suggests.
The matchup: Slot alignments bring Kupp into Chicago's nickel and linebacker exchanges, especially when the Bears blitz. Choice routes and shallow crossers offer the cleanest route to separation near the goal line.
The value: The 18% contract is two points above the working 16% estimate. The target location keeps him viable, but the price is slightly too short without a larger weekly share.
Seahawks D/ST anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Seattle's defense can create pressure without heavy blitz volume, but a defensive touchdown requires both a turnover and return. That extra condition makes D/ST contracts inherently low-frequency.
The matchup: Williams' mobility can turn pressure into scrambles rather than sacks, and Chicago has enough quick-game answers to protect the football. Seattle's clearest route is a four-man strip-sack or an interception created by disguised zone coverage.
The value: The submitted 21% price is 13 points above the working 8% estimate. Seattle can play excellent defense without scoring, making this contract substantially too short.
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Game script & betting context
Seattle carries an implied total near 24.75 within a 46.5-point environment. As a three-point favorite, the Seahawks can lean on play action and a concentrated target tree led by Smith-Njigba, with Barner benefiting from Chicago's weakness against tight ends. A Bears lead would increase Darnold's volume but also elevate turnover and protection risk. Mild weather should keep the complete playbook available.
For analysis across the full slate, see our NFL Week 8 anytime touchdown predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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