One game in Week 8 reshaped the NFL Super Bowl futures market.
- The Bills moved ahead of the 49ers as Super Bowl favorites.
- MVP favorite Josh Allen saw his odds shorten to +145.
- The Ravens’ Super Bowl odds lengthened to +5,500 by Monday.
After the Buffalo Bills beat the Baltimore Ravens 36-10 as 3.5-point underdogs, Caesars Sportsbook sent the two teams in opposite directions.
The Bills moved past the previous favorites, the San Francisco 49ers, to become the outright Super Bowl favorites, with their odds shortening from +650 to +550. The 49ers, who had a bye in Week 8, remained at +600.
Buffalo, a popular futures bet, has remained near the top of the market since the preseason. The Bills’ defense turned in one of its better performances of the season Sunday, while quarterback Josh Allen threw for two touchdowns, added a rushing score, and totaled more than 300 yards.
Allen’s MVP odds at Caesars shortened from +170 to +145 after Sunday’s game. He’s the market’s odds leader ahead of Brock Purdy at +425 and Joe Burrow at +450.
Losing Lamar
The Bills benefited from Baltimore losing two quarterbacks to injuries, including star Lamar Jackson. Jackson had just returned Sunday after missing three games with an ankle injury.
He exited in the first quarter with a right thumb injury that requires surgery and a stint on injured reserve. He could miss the rest of the 2026 season.
Jackson's injury, combined with Baltimore’s .500 record in early November, has significantly lengthened the Ravens’ Super Bowl odds.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“Lamar Jackson’s injury creates the more immediate market reaction because a quarterback carries such significant weight in both weekly lines and futures pricing,” Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars, said after the game Sunday. “We moved Baltimore from 14-1 entering today to 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, reflecting the possibility that Lamar misses significant time, if not the remainder of the season.”
Odds movement
At BetMGM, the Ravens opened the regular season at +1,100 to win the Super Bowl, with their odds shortening to +800 before Jackson’s ankle injury.
Before Sunday, only seven teams had shorter Super Bowl odds at Caesars. After the loss to Buffalo and Jackson's move to injured reserve, Baltimore’s odds lengthened to +5,500 Monday, placing it in the second half of the league.
Divisional rival Cincinnati benefited from the movement. After surviving the Titans in overtime, the Bengals shortened from +1,800 to +1,400, giving them the eighth-lowest odds on the board.
