The Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears in Monday Night Football action this week.
These teams clashed last year, with Washington winning on a last-second Hail Mary from Jayden Daniels.
My Bears vs. Commanders predictions are betting on an easier victory for Washington this time around.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 6 clash on October 13.
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Bears vs Commanders prediction
Bears vs Commanders Best bet: Commanders -4.5 (-110)
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will always be linked to each other after going first and second in the draft last year. Williams was the most hyped prospect in recent memory but has been inconsistent so far in his career with the Chicago Bears.
Meanwhile, Daniels put together the best season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history and has immediately turned around the Washington Commanders franchise.
Daniels missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a knee sprain but returned last week to lead Washington to a 27-10 win against the Chargers. The Bears are fresh off a bye and have won back-to-back games after an ugly start to the year. That said, those victories look less impressive in hindsight.
They beat a Cowboys squad that lost it's best player to an injury in Week 3 and they won on a last-second TD against a subpar Raiders squad in Week 4. They also benefited from three interceptions in both of those games and the efficient Daniels hasn't been picked off in his last five contests.
The Bears are second-last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (164.5) while ranking dead-last in yards allowed per carry (6.1). That's bad news against a Commanders attack that leads the NFL with 156.4 rushing yards per game.
Washington is ninth in the league in defensive success rate while Chicago ranks just 31st. I'll back the squad with the superior defense and the more reliable QB at home.
Bears vs Commanders MNF same-game parlay
The Commanders need to get the ball into the hands of speedster Jacory Croskey-Merritt against a terrible Bears run defense.
The rookie RB came out of nowhere to rush for 82 yards on 10 carries in Week 1 but was limited to 19 carries and 90 yards over his next three games. They finally fed him the ball last week and he rewarded them with 111 rushing yards and two scores on 14 carries.
Since I'm expecting a negative game script for the Bears it makes sense to take the Over on Williams' passing yards props. Especially since the Commanders are extremely weak in the secondary and rank 27th in the league in coverage grade per PFF.
Bears vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -4.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Williams Over 232.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Jacory Has Merit!
While Bears have been getting gashed on the ground, they've allowed just seven rush attempts and 62 rushing yards against opposing quarterbacks.
Daniels' mobility might not be at 100% and he could be less reluctant to run due to the knee injury he suffered in Week 2.
Bears vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -4.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Williams Over 232.5 passing yards
- Jayden Daniels Under 45.5 rushing yards
Bears vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Chicago +4.5 | Washington -4.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +190 | Washington -230
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Bears vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Commanders have covered the second half spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.72 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs Commanders.
How to watch Bears vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Monday, October 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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